Crypto under pressure: flows, regulation and supply shocks on the horizon

On the morning of 11 November 2026, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs showed preliminary outflows of around 25 M€ (or nearly 28 M$ at the rate of 1 € = 1,117 $), according to Inflowscan data. Most of the redemptions affected the FBTC fund, confirming a targeted disengagement move by institutional investors. These negative flows come as market attention remains focused on the forthcoming monetary policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Despite these outflows, bitcoin was trading on 11 November at around 65 900 € (about 73 562 $), slightly down over 24 hours but still within a high valuation range by recent standards. As recently as the previous day, several data aggregators placed BTC in a tight range around 66 400 € (about 74 173 $), illustrating a consolidation phase. The maintenance of prices above 65 000 € suggests, for now, a fragile balance between profit-taking and supportive buying.

The market recaps from 10 November describe an overall neutral-to-bearish environment, with a “Fear & Greed” index near 32, in a zone of marked caution. At the same time, bitcoin dominance remained close to 60 %, confirming its role as a relative safe-haven within a more turbulent market. Total crypto market capitalization was estimated around 2 230 Mds €, reflecting a still significant sector but one under pressure for several sessions.

The days of 9 and 10 November saw a cumulative decline of about 4 to 5 % for the crypto market, linked to expectations of another rise in US policy rates in December. This expected monetary tightening weighs on appetite for risky assets, including spot bitcoin ETFs, often seen as an institutional entry point. The recent outflows from spot products could therefore reflect a tactical repositioning rather than an immediate structural reversal for bitcoin itself.

For investors, these signals remain ambivalent: on one hand, negative ETF flows and the cautious sentiment reflected by the “Fear & Greed” index argue for increased vigilance; on the other, bitcoin’s ability to hold around 65 900 € despite redemptions suggests a still-solid demand base. Ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions, the behavior of spot ETFs will remain a closely watched indicator to gauge institutional appetite, without constituting a guarantee of future price direction.

On November 10, 2026, the official Senate calendar shows H.R. 3633, a bill dedicated to "digital commodities." The text aims to establish a regulatory regime for the offers and sales of these digital assets, by coordinating the responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This explicit positioning in the Senate marks a new step in the attempt to clarify the legal status of crypto-assets, after several years of litigation and fragmented regulatory initiatives.

According to the same Senate document dated November 10, 2026, H.R. 3633 is not limited to crypto markets: it also provides for amendments to the Federal Reserve Act. The declared objective is to prohibit federal banks from offering certain services directly to individuals, including the use of any potential U.S. central bank digital currency for monetary policy purposes. Such a restriction would frame upstream the architecture of a possible central bank digital dollar, which remains at the reflection stage.

Procedurally, a "cloture" motion was filed in the Senate on September 15, 2026 regarding H.R. 3633, a sign that at least some lawmakers wish to speed up the legislative process. Cloture being a tool to limit debate, its use reflects a desire to bring the text to a vote or, at the very least, to overcome a potential blockade. The November 10 calendar confirms that the bill remains actively on the parliamentary agenda.

The bill comes alongside a separate regulatory initiative: the SEC's proposal called "Regulation Crypto Assets", published in August 2026 and still in draft form after a consultation that closed on October 20, 2026. For crypto actors, the central issue remains the precise delineation between tokens considered "commodities" and those treated as securities, as well as the transparency and compliance obligations that would follow for platforms listing these assets on the U.S. market.

In a position paper published on 10 November 2026, the AFM considers that staking, crypto lending and part of decentralised finance activities fall wholly or partly outside the scope of MiCA. According to the Dutch supervisor, these services do not clearly fit into the categories provided by the European regulation, leaving a regulatory gap around products that promise returns on crypto‑assets, even as they are rapidly expanding among retail and professional investors in Europe.

The AFM recommends designing specific European rules for these services, focusing on three major risks: liquidity, leverage and opacity of business models. The regulator stresses that staking and lending offers can rely on chains of collateral reuse that are difficult to analyse, with the risk of massive withdrawals in times of market stress. It also points to complex remuneration schemes that are poorly transparent to the public, notably in some DeFi protocols.

The Dutch supervisor simultaneously calls for a more central role for the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in the supervision of crypto service providers operating in the Union, as well as for a more homogeneous application of MiCA across Member States. This request comes as the first MiCA authorisations begin to be granted in several countries, creating a common framework for crypto‑asset issuers and service providers, but without exhaustively addressing yield products and decentralised arrangements.

According to the AFM's published position, many crypto yield offers still remain structured outside the regulatory perimeter today, despite MiCA’s gradual entry into force. For platforms targeting European clients, these orientations hint at future additional requirements concerning staking products, interest‑bearing accounts and certain forms of automated market‑making. In the medium term, a second wave of regulation could thus redefine the distribution conditions of these services, with more obligations on transparency and risk management.

On November 6, 2026, the Bank of Russia finalized a set of rules opening, from November 17, access for non‑qualified retail investors to bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) and the USDT stablecoin via licensed intermediaries. This development marks a turning point for a market long confined to qualified investors and institutional experiments. The Russian authorities have chosen a strictly regulated framework that seeks to reconcile capital controls, risk management for savers and recognition of the growing role of crypto‑assets in international finance.

Under these new rules, each non‑qualified investor will be limited to about 3 310 € (3 700 $) of crypto‑asset purchases per year and per intermediary. Access will be conditioned on passing a knowledge test and signing an explicit risk warning. Qualified investors will not be subject to this annual cap, but will remain confined to platforms and brokers duly licensed by the Bank of Russia, which maintains tight control over flows, custody and the liquidity available in the country.

The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) plans to launch a trading pilot for BTC, ETH and USDT on December 1, 2026, under this new regulated regime. This project places traditional market infrastructure at the heart of the system, rather than foreign or unregulated platforms. For European players, the emergence of a regulated crypto segment in Russia could, over time, alter liquidity routes and arbitrage opportunities, even though cross‑border access constraints and existing sanctions currently limit direct interconnections.

Several analyses cited in the report indicate that the November 6 announcement did not trigger an immediately visible price reaction. Bitcoin was trading around 67 700 € (75 600 $) at the time, in a market already down by about 7% over the November 6–8, 2026 period. The highly regulated nature of the opening, combined with caps and a select group of intermediaries, appears to have limited short‑term speculative impact, while opening a new front in the regulatory geography of bitcoin.

For observers of international regulation, the Russian initiative confirms that states now favor models of partial, licensed openings rather than total bans or full liberalization. By adding a legal, albeit capped, channel for BTC, ETH and USDT, Moscow equips itself with an additional tool of economic and potentially geopolitical policy around crypto flows. The real reach of this regime will depend, however, on its attractiveness to retail investors, the appetite of qualified investors and future alignment with European and Asian regulations.

On 10 November 2026, Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD) announced that it had successfully conducted transfers in wholesale digital dirhams with Bank of China, leveraging the Jisr platform of the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE). According to the press release, the flows were executed end-to-end in central bank digital currency, without passing back through traditional channels, marking a new concrete step for the CBUAE’s Digital Dirham programme.

The operation consisted of sending and receiving digital dirhams between the two banks, with initiation, clearing and settlement all processed on Jisr. This complete chain for a cross-border wholesale CBDC payment aims to test technical viability, operational resilience and the platform’s ability to process bilateral flows between the UAE and a major Chinese banking partner, in a context of growing sovereign payment infrastructures.

This transaction is part of the CBUAE’s Digital Dirham programme, which prioritises interbank and cross-border payments before considering possible retail use cases. The central bank’s stated objective is to develop CBDC settlement capabilities via bilateral connections with partner markets. The corridor tested between Dubai and Bank of China could serve as a model for other digital monetary linkages in the region and beyond.

For crypto and blockchain stakeholders, these wholesale CBDC experiments strengthen potential competition between public central bank infrastructures and private solutions, notably stablecoins, for international payments. As CBDC settlement corridors become structured, questions arise about interoperability with existing systems, the role of public networks and the division of responsibilities between central banks, commercial banks and private payment token issuers.

According to several aggregators specialized in tracking token unlocks, Monad (MON) is scheduled on November 24, 2026 to carry out an unlock estimated between 16.6 and 17.1 billion tokens. At the price observed on November 11, 2026, this tranche represents roughly 265 M€ to 275 M€ (296.5 M $). These volumes exceed 30% of the supply currently in circulation, making it one of the most watched programmed supply shocks among layer‑1 tokens for the end of 2026.

Monad’s tokenomics documents describe a vesting schedule spread over about 48 months, from November 2025 to November 2029, with notably marked steps at the beginning and end of the period. Research reports published at the end of 2025 already identified a “cliff” of around 16.8 billion MON in November 2026, valued then at approximately 358 M€ (400 M $) based on the price assumptions of that time. The gap between those projections and current valuations illustrates the sensitivity of these analyses to market context.

Beyond this November 2026 cliff, several community dashboards show a sequence of recurring monthly unlocks on the order of one billion MON. This sustained cadence maintains a potential supply overhang beyond 2026, with a steady flow of new tokens to the market until the scheduled end of the timeline in 2029. For observers, the challenge is to measure how this programmed issuance aligns with possible growth in demand on the Monad network.

On forums, many individual holders debate the potential impact of the November 24 unlock. Some users anticipate significant selling pressure related to the size of the unlock and the share of supply involved. Others believe that demand depth, on‑chain activity and the interest of applications built on Monad could absorb part of this new liquidity. In both cases, monitoring the actual volumes put up for sale will be decisive to assess the concrete effect on price.

This case more broadly illustrates the central role of unlock and vesting schedules in the analysis of layer‑1 tokens. Experienced investors and users factor these parameters in to assess risks of dilution, liquidity or volatility around key dates. In Monad’s context, the figures published by aggregators and the tokenomics documents provide a numerical framework, but do not prejudge the market reaction, which will depend on macro conditions, risk appetite and the protocol’s adoption trajectory.