Skip to content

Prophetia · Today's letter

October 21, 2026 edition

Latest available edition — today's is on its way.

U.S. regulation, wallet vulnerability and unlock pressure: a market holding its breath

Abstract illustration showing two luminous price curves above a euro symbol, on a dark grid background with discreet icons of regulations and padlocks, suggesting a crypto market consolidating under regulatory constraints and security risks.

Bitcoin

€73,784

+1.01% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,181

+1.61% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1237

In this edition · 6

Editorial

October 21, 2026 opens on a crypto market digesting both a regulatory salvo and a succession of security incidents. Bitcoin trades around 73 600 €, while ether climbs back toward 2 190 €, in a cautious atmosphere after the closing yesterday of the U.S. SEC’s public consultation on its “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal. Behind this technical term lies the central question of access to registration exemptions for issuers and intermediaries, with direct consequences for the availability of products in Europe and the United States. At the same time, the ecosystem’s security is once again under pressure: losses related to hacks are rising again and the supply-chain attack on a major hardware wallet manufacturer is a reminder that risk is not limited to smart contracts. Finally, the calendar of “unlocks” and protocol upgrades is intensifying, with several unlocks concentrated at the end of October and major upgrades in preparation on Solana, Ethereum and Zcash. today’s edition aims to provide factual bearings to navigate this intersection of cycles: regulation, security and token supply structure.

Markets

Bitcoin and ether consolidate above 73 000 € and 2 100 € amid tense regulatory climate

Bitcoin holds around 73 600 € and ether near 2 187 € as of 21 October 2026, in a European market attentive to U.S. regulatory consultations and persistent security risks. This consolidation phase follows a week of contained fluctuations, without a clear signal of a strong trend.

On 21 October 2026, bitcoin traded around 73 600 €, up about 1.3% over 24 hours, with a weekly peak near 73 900 €. According to data aggregated in euros, BTC remained in a band of 72 500 € to 74 000 € during the week of 15–21 October, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a pronounced directional move. In equivalent terms, this level of 73 600 € corresponds to approximately 82 700 € in the value initially cited in dollars (82 700 $), based on an exchange rate of 1 € to 1.1237 $.

Over the period from 20 to 21 October 2026, bitcoin traded in a relatively narrow range, approximately between 73 600 € and 74 000 €, with an intraday pullback of less than 0.5%. This moderate volatility contrasts with the episodes of rapid correction observed earlier in the year. For many European investors, this relative stability comes as U.S. authorities continue regulatory consultations on the crypto sector, a factor that indirectly influences market sentiment on the Old Continent.

Ether shows a slightly more favorable dynamic, around 2 187 € on 21 October 2026, rising close to 2% over 24 hours. This rebound follows a week of gradual recovery from levels below 2 150 €. In equivalent terms, 2 187 € corresponds to about 2 455 € in the value initially expressed in dollars (2 455 $), using the same exchange rate of 1 € to 1.1237 €. ETH’s trajectory remains nevertheless bounded, with market participants watching both regulation and the evolution of technical and security risks on protocols.

Ongoing consultations in the United States on the status of crypto-assets, platform transparency and intermediary obligations are fueling regulatory uncertainty that extends beyond U.S. borders. European investors are adjusting their exposure in light of these debates, while BTC and ETH prices remain anchored above technical thresholds considered significant, respectively 73 000 € for bitcoin and 2 100 € for ether. In this context, the current consolidation can be seen as both a sign of resilience and anticipation of new catalysts.

At the same time, renewed attention to security risks — whether potential flaws in certain protocols or recent hacking incidents across the market — weighs on risk appetite. Price data in euros nevertheless show that neither bitcoin nor ether broke their consolidation zones during the week under review. For European players, the combination of an evolving regulatory environment and persistent technical issues argues for a cautious and selective approach to digital assets.

Regulation

United States: the consultation on “Regulation Crypto Assets” ends, the SEC faces a mobilized industry

The public comment period on the U.S. draft “Regulation Crypto Assets” closed on October 20, 2026, paving the way for a possible finalization of framework rules for the issuance and trading of crypto-assets. European players are closely watching a framework that could have potentially extraterritorial reach.

The rest is for subscribers

Upgrade to Plus or Pro to read the full edition every morning: every article, its sources and the archives.

See the plans

Regulation

France: vote on tax for stablecoin swaps postponed to November 3, a signal watched by the European ecosystem

The National Assembly has postponed to 3 November 2026 the budgetary review of a measure targeting stablecoin swaps. This delay rekindles the debate between prudential oversight and the risk of relocating crypto liquidity within Europe.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Security

Hacks, hardware wallets and supply chain: 2026 marks a turning point in crypto risk

In autumn 2026, the curve of crypto hacks spikes while supply-chain attacks and assaults on intermediary infrastructure multiply, shaking certainties about wallet security. Recent figures demand a reassessment of custody models, from hardware wallets to bridges and exchanges.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Markets

Unlock pressure: more than 300 M€ of tokens unlocked, LMTS and Falcon Finance in the spotlight

Between October 19 and 25, 2026, more than 300,5 M€ of tokens are due to be released, with a peak day near 84,5 M€ and major events for LMTS and Falcon Finance. Market desks are closely monitoring these supply flows, which could weigh on still illiquid tokens.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Technology

Solana, Ethereum, Zcash: a pipeline of technical upgrades reshuffling the L1 landscape

Alpenglow on Solana, Glamsterdam on Ethereum and NU7 on Zcash: three structural upgrades come into play, with direct implications for performance, privacy and the regulation of public blockchains. They arrive as monetary authorities multiply experiments with tokenization and settlement currency.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Coming up

  • October 22, 2026 – Unlock of 102.15 million LMTS (Limitless) tokens, i.e. 77.62% of the circulating supply, for a value of approximately 3,8 M€ (4,28 M$) at the current price.
  • October 22, 2026 – Significant weekly token unlocks totaling about 300,5 M€ (337,61 M$), with a record day estimated at nearly 84,5 M€ (94,88 M$) of unlocks on October 23, according to vesting aggregators.
  • November 3, 2026 – Budget vote in France including the proposed tax on stablecoin swaps, postponed since the October 20 session.
  • November 5, 2026 – Current target for mainnet deployment of the Zcash NU7 upgrade, after activation on testnet on October 6 and setting of the block height around October 20.
  • End of 2026 (schedule to be specified) – Gradual rollout of “Alpenglow”, Solana’s next consensus upgrade, already documented by the Solana Foundation and in technical preparation.