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Prophetia · Today's letter

November 1, 2026 edition

After the Binance shock, crypto tests its defenses

Abstract illustration showing a digital safe fractured with streams of data escaping toward several networks shaped like blockchains, on a dark blue and red background, to symbolize a massive cryptocurrency hack.

Bitcoin

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Ethereum

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EUR/USD rate

1.1304

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The day of November 1, 2026 opens on a market still reeling from the record Binance hack, assessed at about 5,6 milliards d’euros (6,3 milliards USD). Beyond the amount, it is the combination of a sophisticated attack, suspicions quickly directed toward North Korea and a coordinated reaction from stablecoin issuers that is redrawing the risk map for the ecosystem in real time. Bitcoin is holding for now above 68 000 € per unit, while implied volatility is rising again and correlations with equities remain high. Investors must now incorporate this security shock into an already heavy macro environment, between cautious central banks and sluggish growth. In Europe, the MiCA transitional period is behind us: non‑compliant providers are progressively being pushed out, while authorized players test the resilience of the new framework. On the technological front, Ethereum is approaching a major upgrade intended to strengthen the network’s capacity. Finally, a busy schedule of token unlocks in November calls for close monitoring of supply dynamics. Altogether, this argues for a nuanced, segmented reading of risks rather than a homogeneous view of the “crypto market”.

Security

Binance: autopsy of a hack exceeding 5.5 billion euros

In twenty minutes on October 29, 2026, more than 5.6 billion euros (6.3 billion USD) were taken from Binance hot wallets across nearly a dozen blockchains. The attack, attributed by the FBI to a North Korean group, redefines the operational and geopolitical risks facing centralized platforms.

On October 29, 2026, around 5.58 billion € (6.3 billion USD) were siphoned from Binance hot wallets in about twenty minutes, according to the exchange’s official communications and initial on‑chain analyses published on October 30. Outgoing flows were detected on nine to ten blockchains, illustrating a coordinated and premeditated attack scenario. Authorities and several blockchain analytics firms are already calling the incident the largest hack in crypto history, surpassing the previous Bybit record estimated at 1.33 billion € (1.5 billion USD) in 2025.

On October 31, 2026, the FBI officially attributed the theft to TraderTraitor, a North Korean group previously linked to the Bybit hack in 2025. This attribution strengthens the geopolitical dimension of the case, placing the attack within a continuum of illicit financing operations attributed to Pyongyang. The repetition of large‑scale attacks ascribed to this group could prompt regulators to consider major crypto platforms as critical infrastructure, with consequent increased requirements for security and international cooperation.

Given the scale of the diversion, Binance reports that about 2.65 billion € (3 billion USD) were frozen on‑chain as of October 30, 2026, in partnership with several stablecoin issuers and blockchain actors. Tether reports having blocked over 1.33 billion € (1.5 billion USD) related to the incident alone. The ability to immobilize these funds so quickly highlights the central but also controversial role of freeze mechanisms in crisis management, with direct implications for the fungibility and perceived decentralization of stablecoins.

Initial technical analyses point to an entry point related to the compromise of a DevOps engineer’s laptop, combined with other intrusion vectors. This scenario brings internal practices for key management, access control, and development environments back into the spotlight. For the sector as a whole, the incident raises the question of scaling operational security measures: strict separation of environments, limitation of privileges, key rotation, and real‑time monitoring of movements on the hot wallets of large centralized platforms.

Beyond Binance, this massive hack is already feeding regulatory discussions about minimum security requirements for exchanges of global scope. In Europe, it could spur a reassessment of supervisory and operational resilience frameworks, building on MiCA and the DORA frameworks applied to financial services providers. The dependence on a few stablecoin issuers able to freeze billions of euros in an emergency also becomes a strategic issue, both for risk management and for financial sovereignty.

Markets

Bitcoin under pressure: market stress-test after the Binance hack

On October 30, 2026, Bitcoin briefly slipped below 68 120 € (77 000 $) in the wake of the Binance hack, triggering more than 1,39 milliard € of derivatives liquidations. The market’s quick reaction and the partial easing of implied volatility fuel the debate on the ecosystem’s structural resilience.

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Regulation

MiCA after the transitional periods: an accelerated sorting of crypto service providers in Europe

The end, on 1 July 2026, of MiCA’s transitional regime brings national tolerances to a close and requires all crypto‑asset service providers to be authorized as CASPs to continue operating in the European Union. Between consolidation of licensed players and orderly exit of non‑compliant ones, access to the single market is narrowing.

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Technology

Ethereum Glamsterdam: a pivotal upgrade for the layer 1 and the network economy

Planned after Fusaka and currently being prepared on devnets, the Glamsterdam upgrade is set to introduce ePBS, parallel execution and a new state pricing, with a mainnet deployment expected in Q4 2026. A step that could reshape fees, node decentralization and MEV business models on Ethereum.

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Markets

November 2026: a month under close watch for token unlocks

With 3,321 vesting events recorded for a nominal value of about 7,83 M€ (8,85 M$), November 2026 looks set to be a busy month for token supply. The concentration of these unlocks could weigh on liquidity and risk perception, even without immediate market sales.

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Macro

Rates unchanged, uncertainties persist: central banks under the crypto markets’ microscope

The Fed and ECB chose monetary status quo at the end of October 2026, but visibility remains low for year‑end. A backdrop of slowing global growth is weighing on risk appetite, including for digital assets like bitcoin and ether.

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Coming up

  • December 8–9, 2026: final FOMC meeting of the year, the US Federal Reserve will again decide on its policy rates in a context of still‑elevated inflation and a resilient labor market.
  • December 16, 2026: monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Frankfurt, followed by a press conference – the first full meeting since the announcement of Christine Lagarde’s departure in February 2027.
  • November 2026 (day to be confirmed): major Toncoin (TON) unlock estimated at about 39,2 M€ (44,3 M USD), representing 1,29% of the token’s market capitalization, according to major unlock schedules.
  • November 26, 2026: first internal deadline postponed for the HUMA project, with a release of team and investor allocations delayed by six months, which will concentrate more supply toward year‑end.
  • November 27, 2026: unlock of 4,08% of KNTQ’s supply according to unlock aggregators, a significant milestone for the token’s liquidity.
  • By end‑2026: expected mainnet activation of Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade (window Q4 2026, exact date unconfirmed), with structural changes to transaction processing and state pricing.