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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 22, 2026 edition

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Crypto: markets under strain, major upgrades and macro countdown

Abstract illustration of a glowing Bitcoin symbol suspended between rising bars reminiscent of ETF flows and dark, swirling shapes evoking macroeconomic risks and the volatility of oil prices.

Bitcoin

€73,598

-0.15% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,172

-0.3% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1255

In this edition · 6

Editorial

On 22 October 2026, the crypto ecosystem is evolving in a mixed environment. Bitcoin is stabilizing around 73 700 € (≈ 82 900 USD), after a rebound fueled by inflows into US ETFs, but held back by the rise in oil and the uncertainty linked to the wave of investments in artificial intelligence. Altcoins are progressing in a measured way, without euphoria. On the infrastructure side, Solana has just activated Alpenglow, its largest upgrade since 2020, aiming for near-real-time finality. Stellar is also preparing a deep protocol change, with a validator vote scheduled for the end of November. At the same time, the market is still digesting the consequences of large-scale security breaches and is preparing for a series of significant unlocks in the days ahead. Finally, the coming week will be dominated by the countdown of the major central banks: the Fed and the ECB will meet on 28 and 29 October, in a context of inflation still above targets. For European readers, the priority is to monitor how these technological, security and macroeconomic shocks interact, without losing sight of the risks associated with this volatile asset class.

Markets

Bitcoin stuck between record inflows into ETFs and macroeconomic uncertainties

Bitcoin is trading around 73 700 € on October 22, 2026, supported by massive subscriptions to BlackRock’s IBIT ETF but restrained by rising oil prices and doubts about the AI thematic in equities. The recovery remains fragile, after a start of the month marked by a return below the equivalent of 71 100 €.

On October 22, 2026, bitcoin is trading around 73 700 €, after a weekly high near 75 100 € the day before, according to several price aggregators cited by Decrypt and StatMuse. Data aggregated by StatMuse indicate an average daily price for the session near 73 600 € (≈ 82 900 $), in line with recent market references. The price remains close to the reference level provided by several platforms, around 73 598 € (≈ 82 834 $), confirming a consolidation zone rather than a true bullish acceleration.

This move occurs within an uneven recovery. Decrypt notes that around October 21, BTC rebounded by approximately 2.5% over 24 hours, after falling below the equivalent of 71 100 € (≈ 80 000 $) earlier in the month, underscoring the persistence of strong volatility. Over the whole of October, Investing.com notes that bitcoin remains slightly down by about 1% after three consecutive months of gains, a profile closer to a period of technical breathing than to a new euphoric cycle.

On the flows front, Clapp Finance reports that US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net subscriptions of around 467,9 M€ (≈ 526,6 M$) on October 19, entirely concentrated in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. This inflow reflects an ongoing institutional appetite for bitcoin exposure via regulated vehicles. It helps deepen observable market liquidity, but by itself is not enough to dispel doubts about the strength of the trend, given the more uncertain macroeconomic context.

Investing.com emphasizes that bitcoin’s advance remains contained by the persistent firmness of oil prices, close to five-month highs, and by growing questions about the sustainability of the AI thematic in equity markets. Sustained high oil revives fears of sticky inflation and a longer restrictive monetary policy, which weighs on risk appetite. At the same time, a potential revaluation of AI-related valuations could trigger a broad risk reduction movement, including digital assets.

In this context, the October 22 session illustrates a precarious balance: on one side, significant ETF flows, concentrated with a few large managers, supporting prices and order book depth; on the other, a macro environment marked by rising energy costs and still-debated equity valuations. For observers, the central question becomes less the spot price level than the resilience of liquidity if equity markets enter a more pronounced correction phase.

Technology

Solana activates Alpenglow and targets 150 millisecond finality on mainnet

On 21 October 2026, Solana activated Alpenglow on its mainnet, an upgrade approved at 98 % by validators and described as its largest overhaul since 2020. The upgrade promises finality on the order of 150 milliseconds, with potential consequences for DeFi and on-chain high-frequency trading.

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Technology

Stellar prepares Bell (Protocol 30): a technological leap under a tight schedule

The Stellar Development Foundation has scheduled a mainnet vote for Bell, Protocol 30, on 23 November 2026 — a major upgrade combining a new address format, millisecond timestamps and post‑quantum primitives. A structural change for stablecoin issuers and European financial applications built on the Stellar network.

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Security

After a €344M hack, Bitget accelerates its strategy and reignites the debate on exchange security

Less than a month after confirming a €344.2M breach of certain hot wallets, Bitget shows a rapid resumption of activities and is preparing an acquisition in Thailand. A sequence that highlights the tension between commercial expansion and tightening security standards for centralized platforms.

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Markets

Wave of unlocks: a liquidity test for an already fragile market

Nearly 221,8 M€ of tokens are due to be unlocked in one week, in a market already subject to macroeconomic strains. This concentration of unlocks could weigh on liquidity and increase selling pressure on several projects.

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Macro

Countdown to the Fed and ECB: limited room for maneuver against persistent inflation

One week before the Fed and ECB decisions, inflation is ticking up slightly in the United States and remains under watch in the euro area. Both traditional markets and crypto assets are adjusting to the prospect of persistently restrictive rates.

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Coming up

  • 23 October 2026 – Several token unlocks, including TON (GRAM) for about 44,2 M€ (≈ 49,73 M USD) and Humanity (H) for about 15,2 M€ (≈ 17,09 M USD), according to DefiLlama and other unlock calendar aggregators.
  • 24 October 2026 – Avalanche (AVAX) unlock for about 14,6 M€ (≈ 16,38 M USD) and other mid-sized tokens, within a total of about 250 M€ of unlocks over seven days in October, according to DefiLlama.
  • 28–29 October 2026 – FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, monetary policy decision expected on 28 October, during a blackout period opened on 17 October, according to official Fed documents.
  • 28–29 October 2026 – Meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Frankfurt, monetary policy decision and press conference on 29 October at 14:15 CET, next step after the September rate hike to 2,50 % for the deposit facility.
  • 23 November 2026 – Mainnet vote on Bell, Protocol 30 of the Stellar network at 17:00 UTC, introducing notably a new address format and ledger timing in milliseconds, according to the Stellar Development Foundation.