Skip to content

Prophetia · Today's letter

November 7, 2026 edition

Crypto: markets under strain, security on alert, MiCA takes the stage

Abstract illustration showing a fragmented digital sphere from which luminous streams escape before partly returning to the center, suggesting massive withdrawals then the gradual return of liquidity to a crypto platform after a hack.

Bitcoin

€68,143

+0.57% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,016

+1.24% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1158

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of 7 November 2026 opens on a crypto market still marked by the largest hack in history and by an uncertain macroeconomic environment. After the theft of around 5,65 milliards € (6,3 milliards USD) from Binance, deposit and withdrawal flows remain closely watched, as does the ability of the major platforms to restore trust. At the same time, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer, particularly in Europe where the EBA has just classified USDC as the first “significant e‑money token” under MiCA, with enhanced supervision effective from 12 November. On the markets, bitcoin is trading around 68 143 € (76 034 USD) and ether near 2 016 € (2 249 USD), in a context where investors must factor in both the security shock, upcoming central bank decisions and a series of major token unlocks. Our edition today focuses on the facts: a status report on post‑hack liquidity, a precise calendar of November unlocks, MiCA developments and the draft regulation of crypto‑assets in the United States. The goal: to provide European readers with a clear, documented overview of risks and issues, without trading instructions or promises of returns.

Markets

After the Binance shock, what withdrawal and deposit flows really reveal

Four days after the largest hack in the history of crypto assets, withdrawal and deposit data on Binance depict a fragile rebalancing, far from a full return to normal. Liquidity remains noticeably depleted, a sign of trust still under strain toward major centralized platforms.

On October 29, 2026, Binance suffered a theft estimated at about 5,65 milliards € (6,3 milliards USD), presented as the largest hack in the history of crypto assets. According to initial elements reported by the company and U.S. authorities, the attack would be linked to a North Korean group associated with the “TraderTraitor” campaign. Part of the funds was moved in less than 20 minutes, illustrating the industrial scale of these operations and the difficulty for platforms to react in real time.

In the hours and days that followed, the priority was to contain the capital outflow. According to on‑chain analyses published at the end of October and beginning of November 2026, about 2,69 milliards € (3 milliards USD) of stolen assets were frozen in transit by blockchain partners. This interception reduces Binance’s net exposure, without erasing the initial shock: even when frozen, these funds remain immobilized and feed regulatory, judicial and operational uncertainty about their final outcome.

User reaction materialized when withdrawals reopened on November 1, 2026. According to several specialized press reports, nearly 3,23 milliards € (3,6 milliards USD) additional were withdrawn from the platform in a short time. This rapid exit movement reflects a classic counterparty risk reduction reflex after an extreme security incident. It shows that, despite Binance’s size, a significant portion of the customer base chooses to self‑insure by withdrawing to external wallets.

On November 3, 2026, Binance indicated that deposits were beginning to exceed withdrawals again, while acknowledging a cumulative net negative flow of about 4,48 milliards € (5 milliards USD) since the hack. This partial reversal of flows does not mean the trust crisis has been erased: it rather suggests a sorting between users ready to stay or return, and those who now favor off‑exchange custody. For the sector as a whole, these figures increase pressure in favor of more transparent security audits and more frequent, verifiable proof‑of‑reserves mechanisms.

At the market level, this type of shock rekindles debates about the concentration of liquidity on a few centralized actors. The fact that flows of several milliards euros can reverse in a few days reveals both the technical resilience of infrastructures and their reputational vulnerability. Withdrawal and deposit data in the coming weeks will be scrutinized: they will make it possible to distinguish a mere short‑term reflex from a potential lasting movement toward self‑custody solutions and decentralized finance, in a context where neither liquidity nor trust can be taken for granted any longer.

Security

Binance: anatomy of a €5.65 billion hack and the evolution of threats against centralized platforms

In early November 2026, Binance detailed how a fake engineer recruitment served as the entry point for a hack estimated at 5,65 milliards €. The methods used confirm the rise of campaigns targeting developers and technical teams in the crypto sector.

The rest is for subscribers

Upgrade to Plus or Pro to read the full edition every morning: every article, its sources and the archives.

See the plans

Regulation

USDC becomes the first “significant e‑money token” under MiCA: what changes on 12 November

One month after the European Banking Authority’s decision, USDC, issued by Circle Internet Financial Europe SAS, moves on 12 November 2026 into MiCA’s regime for “significant e‑money tokens.” A first that sets the prudential bar for large stablecoins in the euro area.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Regulation

United States: the SEC’s new “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal draws criticism

The U.S. SEC opened a consultation in early November on the proposed rule S7-2026-27, which aims to more precisely frame the treatment of crypto-assets. A comment letter published at the same time warns of risks related to token pre-markets and derivatives on assets that have not yet been launched.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Markets

Token unlocks in November: mapping dilution and additional supply risks

With 2 847 unlocking events scheduled in November 2026 for a value of approximately 8,41 million €, the potential pressure on token supply brings dilution and volatility issues back to the forefront. Several unlocks concentrated on a few major projects could temporarily weigh on market sentiment.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Macro

Strong U.S. jobs, November FOMC and risk appetite: what are the implications for the crypto market?

The October 2026 U.S. jobs report, judged solid by the Fed, rekindles expectations of monetary tightening ahead of the FOMC meeting on November 16‑17. A configuration that weighs on global liquidity and fuels volatility in digital assets, led by bitcoin.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Coming up

  • 12 November 2026 – USDC officially becomes a significant e‑money token under MiCA, subject to dual European supervision (EBA and national authorities).
  • 11 November 2026 – Unlock of 12,87% of LAYER’s supply according to the DefiLlama schedule, likely to increase the floating supply on the market.
  • 14 November 2026 – Unlock of 16.7 million Pieverse (PIEVERSE) tokens, i.e. 6,07% of the supply, for team and investors (≈20,8 M€ ; 23,2 M USD) according to MrNasDog.
  • 16–17 November 2026 – FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, a key point for rate expectations and risk appetite for digital assets.
  • 24 November 2026 – Major unlock of the Monad (MON) token of around 17,1 billion MON, valued at ≈296 M€ (330 M USD) at the current price, mainly for team, investors and the protocol treasury.
  • 26 November 2026 – Cliff of a major HUMA token unlock for team, advisors and investors, according to the Bitcolumnist schedule.