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Prophetia · Today's letter

November 4, 2026 edition

Crypto: resilient markets, security under pressure, regulators on alert

Abstract illustration showing two upward price curves on a dark grid background, with shapes in the background evoking macroeconomic charts, symbolizing the rise of bitcoin and ether despite a turbulent market context.

Bitcoin

€69,231

+1.7% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,039

+2.16% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1251

In this edition · 6

Editorial

As of November 4, 2026, the crypto ecosystem is evolving in a contradictory environment. On the price front, the market remains solid: bitcoin hovers around 69 000 € and ether around 2 040 €, after the November 3 session marked by modest but broadly distributed gains across major assets. The previous day’s moves suggest a market more driven by macroeconomics than by specific protocol announcements. In the background, security and regulation nevertheless command attention. The record Binance hack, with around 5,6 billion euros stolen, recalls the persistent vulnerability of infrastructures, while new academic work points to fragilities in Bitcoin’s Lightning layer. On the regulatory front, the consultation period around the SEC’s "Regulation Crypto Assets" draft rule continues to fuel debate, as the European Union effectively implements MiCA and the new tax reporting obligations on crypto-assets. Today’s edition therefore offers a balanced dossier: state of the markets, cautious analysis of operational risks, and decoding of the signals sent by central banks and financial supervisors to European actors.

Markets

Bitcoin and ether: a session driven by macro despite the Binance scar

Bitcoin and ether are trading close to their recent highs in a market propelled by macroeconomic factors, even though confidence was tested by a recent Binance hack. The resilience of prices highlights risk appetite and the increased depth of the crypto market.

As of 4 November 2026, the editorial team notes bitcoin around 69 231 € (77 892 $) and ether close to 2 039 € (2 294 $) as valuation reference points. The day before, a market briefing already reported bitcoin near 69 140 € (77 803 $), up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. Ether followed a similar path, gaining about 1.9% to reach around 2 040 € (2 292 $), a sign of coordinated bullish momentum across the two leading market caps in the sector.

Market notes from 3 November 2026 describe a largely synchronized move among major crypto caps, in a range of +1% to +2%. This limited dispersion argues for a “macro‑driven” market, more influenced by the overall economic environment and general risk appetite than by announcements specific to each protocol. Another wrap reports an approximate 1.5% advance for the entire market, with bitcoin dominance around 57%, confirming its role as the main barometer.

This resilience comes as a recent Binance hack delivered a notable confidence shock to investors. Despite this episode, bitcoin and ether prices remain near their recent highs, at approximately 69 231 € and 2 039 € respectively. This holding of prices suggests increased market depth and a demand base less sensitive to idiosyncratic events, although vigilance remains warranted regarding execution and counterparty risk.

Several aggregators also remind that crypto markets trade continuously, without a closing bell. The levels mentioned for 3 and 4 November 2026 therefore remain volume‑weighted averages that can vary significantly intraday. For investors as well as regulators, the combination of a confidence shock tied to a major exchange hack and price resilience highlights a more mature market, yet still exposed to episodes of rapid volatility and high operational risks.

Sources

  1. 1.SoloTrade – Crypto Market Wrap 3 novembre 2026
  2. 2.AirRadar – Market wrap 3 novembre 2026
  3. 3.Froht – Cryptocurrency Prices Today

Security

Giant Binance Hack: 5,6 milliards euros Stolen, North Korean Link Strengthens

Around 5,65 milliards € (6,36 milliards $) of crypto assets were siphoned from Binance in about twenty minutes on October 29, 2026, in what is shaping up to be the largest theft in the industry's history. Early technical analyses point to the North Korean group TraderTraitor, already involved in several major attacks.

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Regulation

The SEC refines its "Regulation Crypto Assets": a U.S. consultation with global effects

With its draft rule "Regulation Crypto Assets" published in early August 2026, the SEC clarifies the registration framework and exemptions for certain tokens. A consultation enriched by institutional players could influence, beyond the United States, the practices of issuers and platforms serving European clients.

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Macro

MiCA, DAC8 and Lagarde’s departure: Europe tightens the crypto noose amid institutional transition

As the implementation phase of MiCA nears its end and new reporting obligations under DAC8 come into force, the announcement of Christine Lagarde’s early departure from the ECB adds political uncertainty to a crypto framework already undergoing deep reconfiguration.

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Technology

Stellar prepares for the post‑quantum era with “Bell,” its signature‑focused Protocol 30

With “Bell” (Protocol 30), Stellar proposes a redesign of its signature layer to ease the introduction of alternative cryptographic schemes, some of which are presented as more resistant to quantum threats. A technical step that illustrates how major blockchains are anticipating the post‑quantum era.

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Security

Lightning Network under pressure: serial vulnerabilities and increased dependence on LND

Two academic studies published at the end of October 2026 highlight an accumulation of critical vulnerabilities on the Lightning Network and a strong concentration around a single client, LND. Findings that call into question the resilience of an infrastructure that has become central to large‑scale Bitcoin payments.

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Coming up

  • November 4, 2026 – FOMC meeting (U.S. Federal Reserve), monetary policy decision expected in the evening (US economic calendar). (market.news)
  • November 5, 2026 – Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Bank of England, rate decision and monetary policy report at 12:00 (London time). (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • November 4, 2026 – Significant token unlocks (vesting) including Kinetiq (KNTQ) and GateToken (GTGateToken), for a combined value of about 6,1 millions € (≈ 6,9 millions $) according to several unlock schedules. (alphafinance.io)
  • November 4, 2026 – Unlock of 4,2 million PEARL tokens, estimated at nearly 5,5 millions € (≈ 6,15 millions $), representing about 1,15 % of the free-float market cap. (coinclass.com)
  • November 23, 2026 – Mainnet upgrade vote on Stellar (Protocol 30 "Bell"), aimed notably at introducing broader support for signature schemes, including post-quantum ones. (stellar.org)
  • By August 31, 2026 and beyond – Continued implementation of MiCA and European crypto-asset reporting obligations (DAC8), with operational application in 2026 for European service providers. (eur-lex.europa.eu)