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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 23, 2026 edition

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Large Unlocks and Clear Cap: Crypto Markets Under Dual Pressure from Supply and Regulators

Abstract illustration showing shapes of digital coins fragmenting and spreading across a grid, representing a sudden influx of new tokens into the market.

Bitcoin

€72,747

-1.4% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,135

-1.95% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1227

In this edition · 6

Editorial

On 23 October 2026, the crypto market reaches a turning point where the internal mechanics of protocols weigh almost as much as the macro cycle. With bitcoin around €72 747 (≈€72 747, 81 673 $) and ether near €2 135 (≈€2 135, 2 397 $), prices remain high, but attention shifts to upcoming supply flows. The unlock schedules for October and the coming weeks align several tens of millions of euros of tokens that will hit the market in a few days, increasing the risk of volatility across ecosystems that are sometimes still thinly liquid. At the same time, the regulatory framework is taking shape. In Europe, the end of MiCA’s transitional period and the launch of its first revision now structure market participants’ obligations, while in the United States the SEC is refining its approach to tokenized securities and markets relying on distributed ledgers. For a European readership, the day’s issue is less about predicting the next price move than about understanding how these unlocks and these texts will gradually but surely redraw the balance between innovation, liquidity and investor protection.

Markets

Unlock Week: TON, Humanity, AVAX and Plasma in the Spotlight

Between October 23 and 25, 2026, more than €80m of new tokens are scheduled to be unlocked across the TON, Humanity, Avalanche and Plasma ecosystems. A rapid influx of supply that could increase volatility if demand does not follow.

As of October 22, 2026, DefiLlama’s unlock calendar places the TON token (GRAM) at the top of events to watch. On October 23, about €43,0m (48,31 M $) of tokens are set to be released, based on an exchange rate of 1 € = 1,1227 $. This volume, concentrated in a single day, represents a potentially significant supply shock for the TON market, at a time when liquidity and order book depth can vary greatly between platforms.

On the same October 23, 2026, the Humanity token (H) is due to see an unlock of around €14,3m (16,02 M $) according to DefiLlama. Although smaller than TON’s, this influx of tokens remains notable for an asset that is still young and building its user base. The balance between early investors, project teams and liquidity on centralized and decentralized exchanges will be decisive in absorbing this new supply.

On October 24, 2026, AVAX is scheduled to have about €13,6m (15,22 M $) of tokens unlocked, again per DefiLlama’s calendar. AVAX, at the heart of the Avalanche ecosystem, generally benefits from better liquidity than more obscure tokens, which can facilitate the integration of new volumes. However, the temporal concentration of these unlocks can weigh on market sentiment, especially if derivatives already price in a bearish outlook.

The sequence continues on October 25, 2026 with the Plasma token (XPL), for an estimated unlock of nearly €9,4m (10,55 M $). In total, between October 23 and 25, just over €80m of new tokens are expected to hit the market, across all issuances. DefiLlama notes, via its calendar, that this type of event concentration can heighten volatility if spot and derivatives demand does not offset the rapid increase in supply.

In this context, market participants are closely monitoring the price reactions of TON, Humanity, AVAX and Plasma throughout the week of October 23, 2026. The effects of an unlock are neither automatic nor mechanical: they depend on holder behaviour, the macro environment and market structure. For investors, the main task is to follow the transparency of vesting schedules and the available liquidity, rather than assume a single-direction impact on prices.

Macro

October 2026, month of unlocks: nearly 264,3 M€ of tokens released across 10 blockchains

According to Vestream, about 264,3 M€ (296,58 M$) of tokens are set to be unlocked in October 2026, across 929 events covering 607 tokens on 10 chains. An unprecedented concentration that could weigh on liquidity and risk perception across the crypto market.

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Markets

DRV: a medium-sized unlock that weighs heavily on a narrow market

On October 22, 2026, the Image Derive (DRV) protocol experienced an unlock amounting to approximately 5.09% of its circulating supply, or nearly 18,2 M€ (20,4 M$). A modest sum at the crypto market scale, but significant given the token’s limited free float.

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Macro

The ten largest October unlocks concentrate more than €2.6 B on a few tokens

According to Token Radar and an analysis published on Binance Square, more than €2,67 Md (more than 3 G$) of tokens are set to be unlocked in October 2026, with the majority of the value concentrated on a handful of tokens. This configuration focuses liquidity and contagion risk on a few major ecosystems.

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Regulation

MiCA: after the end of the transitional period, the European Union is already opening the revision process

Since 1 July 2026, MiCA has applied fully to issuers and service providers of crypto‑assets in the EU, while the European Commission has already launched a consultation on its revision. A sequence that confirms the evolving nature of the European regulatory framework, notably for DeFi and NFTs.

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Regulation

United States: the SEC frames the use of distributed ledgers for tokenized securities

A notice published on September 22, 2026 in the Federal Register clarifies the SEC’s position on trading securities via distributed ledgers, based on a proposal from the New York Stock Exchange. These guidelines frame the rise of tokenized securities and will influence the structuring of platforms targeting U.S. investors.

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Coming up

  • 23 October 2026 – Unlock of TON (GRAM) tokens worth approximately €43,0m (≈€43,0m, 48,31 M $) according to the DefiLlama schedule, a significant influx of supply to The Open Network market.
  • 23 October 2026 – Unlock of the Humanity (H) token estimated at approximately €14,3m (≈€14,3m, 16,02 M $), concentrated in a single day.
  • 24 October 2026 – Scheduled AVAX unlock for approximately €13,6m (≈€13,6m, 15,22 M $), likely to impact liquidity in the Avalanche ecosystem.
  • 25 October 2026 – Unlock of the Plasma (XPL) token equivalent to approximately €9,4m (≈€9,4m, 10,55 M $), according to unlock calendar data.
  • 28 October 2026 – GGP unlock representing 7,9 % of the circulating supply, according to the DefiLlama schedule, a high percentage relative to usual dilution thresholds.
  • 3 December 2026 – Unlock of 20,66 % of the Big Time game’s supply, an event already listed in unlock calendars as a resilience test for the gaming‑crypto sector.