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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 24, 2026 edition

Latest available edition — today's is on its way.

A market guided by the calendar: massive unlocks and macro waiting

Abstract illustration showing geometric token shapes dispersing across a dark digital grid, evoking a sudden increase in token supply on the market.

Bitcoin

€72,159

-1% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,125

-0.68% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1205

In this edition · 6

Editorial

This Saturday, October 24, 2026, the crypto market is moving under the sign of the long game and scheduled agendas. With bitcoin around 72 159 € and ether near 2 125 €, the day is less marked by immediate volatility than by the concentration of expected flows. Unlock aggregators estimate that about 17,8 M€ of tokens will be released during the single session, in an October already busy with nearly 293 M€ of cumulative unlocks. At the same time, the next Federal Reserve rate decision, expected on October 28, establishes itself as a central appointment for all risk assets. For European investors, the increased visibility of issuance schedules – sometimes projected through 2030 and beyond – brings transparency but does not reduce the risk of occasional liquidity shocks. Today's edition therefore aims to map these flows, measure their orders of magnitude and recall the mechanisms that condition the gradual – or abrupt – arrival of new units on the secondary market.

Markets

24 October: nearly 18 M€ of tokens unlocked in a single session

On 24 October 2026, various unlock calendar aggregators anticipate about 17,8 M€ (19,9 M$) of tokens being released, concentrated across a handful of projects. A configuration that could weigh on the liquidity of several mid-sized assets, on the eve of a new supply peak on 25 October.

According to the aggregated calendar from Alpha Finance, the day of 24 October 2026 will see the unlocking of around 17,8 M€ (19,9 M$) of tokens, calculated before conversion at the rate of 1 € = 1,1205 $. This concentration of unlocks in a single session remains modest relative to the total market capitalization, but it is largely focused on projects still in a growth phase. For teams and investors, the main issue is managing these additional supply flows in order books that are sometimes shallow.

The weekend appears as a high point of this dynamic. Also according to Alpha Finance, the single day of 25 October would aggregate about 39,2 M€ (43,9 M$) of additional unlocks, more than double the volume of 24 October. DefiLlama Investors records, for the seven days starting 23 October 2026, several significant unlocks, including Avalanche (AVAX) for about 13,8 M€ (15,47 M$) on 24 October. A portion of these amounts could hit the secondary market within a short time frame.

Other aggregators confirm the density of flows on 24 October. Token Radar reports an unlocking of the Derive (DRV) token that day for around 17,1 M€ (19,2 M$), or nearly 5 % of the circulating supply. At the same time, MrNasDog records for Virtuals Protocol the release of 295 000 tokens, corresponding to 0,045 % of the total supply, for about 172 000 € (193 000 $). Even if these percentages may seem contained, the impact will depend on the effective liquidity on major trading platforms.

At the monthly scale, these events fit into a broader trend. Vestream’s monthly report counts 909 unlock events for October 2026, for an aggregated value of about 292,7 M€ (327,88 M$) at current day prices. The cumulative flows, more than the isolated size of each operation, can influence order book depth on several so-called “mid-cap” assets. In this context, market participants are closely monitoring the pace of unlocks to adjust their liquidity models and risk management.

For investors, these figures do not constitute a directional signal on prices but a warning about the supply schedule. The amounts at stake remain limited compared with major assets like bitcoin or ether, but the concentration of unlocks over a few days can increase the relative volatility of certain specific tokens. Differences in methodology between Alpha Finance, DefiLlama Investors, Token Radar, MrNasDog and Vestream finally call for cross-checking sources before any interpretation, in order to obtain a more complete view of the short-term dilution profile.

Markets

The Plasma (XPL) Case: a Market Test for Large Weekend Unlocks

With an unlock representing more than 15,6 M€ at the end of October, Plasma (XPL) concentrates a significant portion of the expected supply pressure this weekend. Spot order books and perpetual funding will be scrutinized as a case study for upcoming massive unlocks.

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Macro

Fed on October 28: a key macro test for a crypto market saturated with unlocks

Four days before the Fed’s rate decision on October 28, 2026, major digital assets are trading at sensitive levels as the end of the month concentrates an exceptional volume of unlocks. The combination of a potential shock to rates and an influx of supply could increase volatility in an already crowded market.

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Adoption

Does the proliferation of unlock calendars make the crypto market more predictable?

The widespread use of public unlock calendars promises greater transparency on token supply but could also synchronize market expectations and reinforce technical moves. Between increased visibility and the risk of “calendar trades,” investors must relearn how to read time.

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Security

Issuance schedules through 2030: what unlock timetables really tell us about dilution risk

From MAP to Wormhole and Meteora, major crypto projects now publish issuance curves extending well beyond 2030. These trajectories help better anticipate token inflation, but also measure the gap between theory and secondary market reality.

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Markets

Large unlocks and micro-issuances: toward a finer mapping of liquidity risk

Between mega-unlocks concentrated on a few projects and a multitude of more modest daily flows, the October 2026 schedule illustrates the need for a granular reading of liquidity risk. Cross-checked data from several aggregators make it possible to distinguish a one-off shock from background noise.

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Coming up

  • October 24, 2026: token unlocks totaling about 17,8 M€ (19,9 M$) according to Alpha Finance’s aggregated calendar, including several small and mid caps spread across multiple chains.
  • October 25, 2026: major unlock of the Plasma (XPL) token estimated at about 9,8 M€ (10,93 M$), or a little over 2% of the supply, according to DefiLlama data and the Boostio calendar.
  • October 28, 2026: U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decision (FOMC), identified as the next major macro catalyst by Boostio’s markets/crypto calendar.
  • October 29, 2026: double unlock of the Falcon Finance (FF) token for a total of about 18,3 M€ (20,44 M$) throughout the day, again according to DefiLlama Investors.
  • November 3, 2026: end of the lock-up period for certain KITE allocations, the project’s first major cliff noted in the unlocks calendar followed by Cryptolaxy/Bittime.
  • November 11, 2026: unlock of about 160 million ALLO tokens, presented as one of November’s main events in the calendar analysis published by Bittime/Cryptolaxy.