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Prophetia · Today's letter

November 2, 2026 edition

Crypto: markets resilient, systems under pressure after the Binance shock

Abstract illustration showing a luminous, slightly rising financial chart on a dark background, crossed by broken geometric shapes evoking a cyber hack but revealing an overall trend of market stability.

Bitcoin

€69,993

+0.54% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,046

+0.85% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1196

In this edition · 5

Editorial

On this Monday, 2 November 2026, the crypto ecosystem is still waking up to the shockwave of Binance’s record hack, estimated at about 5,6 milliards € (6,3 milliards $). Despite the unprecedented scale of the fraud, the market absorbed the shock with notable resilience: bitcoin hovers around 69 993 € (78 364 $) and ether near 2 046 € (2 291 $), while total market capitalization remains close to 2,6 billions €. This resilience should not, however, obscure the systemic nature of the event: the world’s leading exchange had to mobilize reserves equivalent to several milliards d’euros and rely on the coordinated freezing of part of the stolen funds. For European investors, the day sits at the crossroads of several trends: regulatory upgrading with the full implementation of MiCA, the imminent arrival of the first spot bitcoin ETF in Switzerland, and a still uncertain macro backdrop ahead of upcoming Fed and ECB decisions. The aim of this edition is to distinguish short-term noise from structural movements: strengthening security requirements, professionalization of intermediaries, and the reconfiguration of capital flows around regulated products. Our reports seek to provide factual benchmarks, without extrapolating beyond the available data.

Markets

After a record 5,6 Mds € hack, the crypto market weathers it without a sharp drop

Despite the announcement of a 5,6 billion-euro hack targeting Binance, bitcoin and ether finished trading on 1 November 2026 slightly higher, while the sector’s total market capitalization remains above 2.3 trillion euros. A full-scale test of the market’s resilience and confidence in major platforms.

The day after the announcement of Binance’s record hack, estimated at 5,6 milliards d’euros, the crypto market surprised with its resilience. On 1 November 2026, bitcoin closed around 69 900 € (≈78 235 $), up about 1.1% over 24 hours, trading in a range of 69 100–69 900 € (≈77 383–78 235 $), according to Basis Desk. No widespread panic-selling phase was detected on major platforms, despite the systemic reach of the announcement.

Basis Desk’s closing report for 1 November 2026 values the crypto market’s total capitalization at around 2,31 billions € (≈2,59 billions $), with bitcoin dominance at 60.5%. This stability, in a context of a confidence shock linked to Binance, suggests a broader distribution of risk across platforms and a growing weight of institutional investors, who are reputed to be less reactive to short-term news than retail traders.

On ethereum’s side, aggregated data from CoinGecko via froht.com and Kinzan place ether between about 2 020 € and 2 030 € (≈2 262–2 270 $) on the evening of 1 November, with intraday variation below 1%. Weekly summaries from CoinPulseHQ and MarketAlleys note a moderate rise in BTC and ETH over seven days, while highlighting that intraday volatility remains concentrated on announcements affecting Binance and regulators.

On 2 November 2026, KuCoin’s Daily Market Report indicated bitcoin around 70 000 € (≈78 350 $) and ether near 2 033 € (≈2 275,28 $), while the “Fear & Greed” index remained at 37, in the distrust zone. This contrast between resilient prices and cautious sentiment illustrates a more mature market: participants now seem to distinguish the risk linked to a particular platform from the risk weighing on the entire ecosystem, without underestimating the regulatory and security stakes.

However, observers interviewed in the daily and weekly reports insist on the fragility of this balance. The muted price reaction after a 5,6 milliards d’euros shock guarantees neither the absence of aftershocks nor lasting confidence. The coming weeks should be paced by Binance’s technical announcements, authorities’ investigations and possible rule adjustments — all factors likely to rekindle volatility, upward as well as downward, in a market still in a normalization phase.

Security

Record hack at Binance: €5,63 B stolen, a systemic stress test for centralized exchanges

On October 29, 2026, Binance disclosed a security incident of unprecedented scale, with about €5,63 billion ( $6.3 billion) in crypto assets stolen. The case reshuffles the counterparty risk landscape for users of centralized platforms and highlights the decisive role of stablecoin issuers in crisis response.

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Adoption

Switzerland: FINMA approves the first European spot bitcoin ETF for retail

On October 20, 2026 FINMA approved the "Bitcoin Fund ETF" (BBIT), the first spot bitcoin ETF intended for retail investors in Switzerland, with a listing scheduled for mid-November on SIX Swiss Exchange. This milestone could mark a turning point for regulated access to bitcoin in Europe and increase pressure on unregulated platforms.

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Markets

Vesting schedule: Monad’s mega unlock and other November dates

With an estimated unlock of more than 465 M€ on November 24, 2026, Monad stands out as the month’s major tokenomics event, ahead of Solana and Cronos deadlines. Market participants are watching these additional supply flows, which could weigh on liquidity and the governance of the projects involved.

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Macro

Central banks in vigilant pause mode: an uncertain rate outlook for risky assets

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB held their rates at the end of October 2026 while clearly leaving the door open to further tightening. For equities as well as cryptoassets, the assumption of a persistently higher cost of capital remains central to the story.

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Coming up

  • 25 November 2026 – Monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Frankfurt (day 2), followed by a press conference. [ECB Governing Council calendar]
  • 8–9 December 2026 – Next FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the year’s final monetary policy decision. [Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026]
  • 11 November 2026 – Scheduled unlocking of about 397 300 SOL (≈33,6 M€ ; 37,59 M$), representing 0,06 % of the supply, according to major vesting calendar aggregators. [CoinClass token unlock schedule]
  • 16 November 2026 – Unlocking of 1,17 milliard CRO (≈53,4 M€ ; 59,8 M$), corresponding to 2,31 % of the supply, from the strategic reserve. [MrNasDog token unlocks novembre 2026]
  • Mid-November 2026 (exact date to be confirmed) – Expected start of trading of the “Bitcoin Fund ETF” (BBIT) spot on SIX Swiss Exchange, the first FINMA-approved spot bitcoin ETF for retail investors. [The Block / BIT Asset Management]
  • 24 November 2026 – Massive unlocking of Monad (MON) tokens estimated between 16,6 and 17,1 milliards MON, valued around 465 M€ (≈521 M$) according to latest estimates, i.e. more than 100 % of current market capitalization. [Tokenomics / DeFiLlama / TokenPost]