Skip to content

Prophetia · Today's letter

November 3, 2026 edition

Crypto: jittery markets and confidence under pressure after mega‑hacks

Abstract illustration showing a price curve in slight decline over a large digital grid, with some more stable segments, symbolising a crypto market that retreats without collapsing after a confidence shock.

Bitcoin

€68,281

-2.1% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,004

-1.7% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1213

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of 2 November 2026 ended with the crypto market still reeling from the record Binance hack and a new attack targeting the Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin. Bitcoin closed around 76 674 $ (approximately 68 400 €) and the total crypto‑asset market capitalization slipped toward 2,56 T$ (approximately 2,28 T€), confirming an environment of contained volatility but weakened confidence. Outflows from spot ETFs and rising security concerns weigh on risk appetite. For European players, this news overlaps with the gradual implementation of MiCA and the latest regulatory adjustments. The coming days will be dominated by US macro data — employment then inflation — likely to rekindle the debate on the Fed’s rate path and, by extension, on the appeal of digital assets. At the same time, November’s unlock schedule (notably HYPE, KITE, then Monad) brings back into focus the risk of selling pressure specific to certain tokens. This edition offers a cautious reading of these intersecting market, security, regulatory and macro dynamics, to provide readers with a factual context for analyzing upcoming movements.

Markets

After the Binance shock, a crypto market that slides without capitulating

In the wake of the turbulence related to Binance, bitcoin retreats without a sharp break while ether holds up better. Outflows from spot ETFs nevertheless highlight a cautious repositioning by investors.

On November 2, 2026, bitcoin closed around 68 370 € (approximately 76 674 $), down about 1.9% on the day in UTC. During the session, the main cryptocurrency traded in a range of roughly 68 300 € to 70 170 € (76 584 $ to 78 687 $), reflecting an orderly slide rather than a panic move. In the wake of the confidence shock around Binance, this measured pullback illustrates a market under pressure but still far from a widespread capitulation.

Over the past 24 hours, several intraday indicators show a gradual retreat of bitcoin from near 69 580 € (78 000 $) to around 68 670 € (77 000 $). This gradual move is observed in a context where the total market capitalization of crypto assets is estimated at close to 2,28 T€ (2,56 T$), with bitcoin dominance around 59.9%. The current decline therefore looks more like consolidation than a break in the underlying trend.

Ether appears slightly more resilient. Over the same period, its price remained contained between about 1 990 € and 2 060 € (2 235 $ to 2 307 $), marginally outperforming bitcoin in percentage terms. This relative behaviour suggests a partial reallocation of flows toward the most liquid altcoins, as investors arbitrate between direct bitcoin exposure, related assets and major platforms after the Binance episode. Rotation remains limited, however, a sign of persistent caution.

According to a market report dated November 2, 2026, spot bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded net outflows of several hundred million euros (equivalent in dollars), with a negative weekly trend for BTC‑related flows. These sell‑offs confirm a gradual disengagement by part of institutional or regulated investors. Combined with the controlled slide in prices, they paint a picture of a market reorganizing under the constraint of counterparty risk, without a sudden collapse but without a clear appetite for a new rally.

For the ecosystem, this phase provides important indications about the structure of post‑Binance flows. Ether’s relative resilience, bitcoin’s still-high dominance and the orderly correction in prices suggest a base of long‑term buyers still present, but more selective. The coming days will be decisive to determine whether ETF selling pressure continues or whether new buyers take advantage of this measured pullback to rebuild positions, in an environment of weakened confidence.

Security

Binance and Mercado Bitcoin: two mega‑hacks that revive the question of counterparty risk

Within a few days, Binance and Mercado Bitcoin suffered hacks totaling more than 5,0 Md€ (5,6 Md$) of digital assets, leading to withdrawal freezes and interventions by stablecoin issuers. These events reignite concerns about the concentration of client funds on centralized platforms.

The rest is for subscribers

Upgrade to Plus or Pro to read the full edition every morning: every article, its sources and the archives.

See the plans

Regulation

MiCA: transitional periods end, European CASPs face the compliance test

As the transitional periods provided by MiCA come to an end, ESMA and the ECB remind that access to the European market will require full authorization of crypto‑asset service providers. Between critical opinions, a Commission consultation and strengthened traceability obligations, CASPs are entering a phase of increased scrutiny.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Macro

US jobs and inflation: a pivotal week for the macro narrative around bitcoin

Three days before the US October jobs report and one week before the CPI, crypto markets are operating in a cautious environment, as the Fed conditions its upcoming rate decisions on these key data. Bitcoin and ether are already showing a slight downward trend.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Markets

Wave of unlocks in November: HYPE, KITE and Monad under watch

More than 478,6 M€ (≈ 536,6 M$) of tokens are scheduled to be unlocked during the week of November 2–8, 2026, while the crypto market retreats by about 2% over 24 hours. KITE, HYPE and Monad concentrate the main risks of selling pressure.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Technology

Tech: NU7 for Zcash and Ethereum’s Next Steps, a Busy Calendar for Base Layers

A few days before NU7 on Zcash and as Ethereum prepares its next hard fork after Shapella, base layer networks confirm a pace of planned developments scheduled months in advance. The stakes: privacy, scalability and security, in a market that is attentive but measured.

The rest is for subscribersSee the plans

Coming up

  • 5–6 November 2026: announced activation window for the NU7 upgrade of Zcash on mainnet, according to specialized crypto schedules.
  • 6 November 2026, 8:30 (New York time): release of the October US employment report (nonfarm payrolls), a key macro event for Fed rate expectations.
  • 6 November 2026: unlock potentially reaching 9,92 M HYPE tokens, valued at around 779 M€ (873 M$), or about 4,14 % of the supply, according to KuCoin.
  • 10 November 2026, 8:30 (New York time): scheduled release of the US consumer price index (CPI) for October, a major benchmark for US monetary policy.
  • 19 November 2026: significant LayerZero unlock mentioned in several crypto event calendars, likely to increase the circulating supply of the token.
  • 24 November 2026: largest November unlock for Monad (MON), of about 17,1 Md tokens, valued around 294 M€ (330 M$) at current prices, according to Crypto Lunar.