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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 27, 2026 edition

Crypto: markets under pressure ahead of the Fed and the ECB

Abstract illustration showing a downward price chart made of glowing lines on a dark blue grid background, symbolizing the crypto market correction and uncertainty related to the US central bank decisions.

Bitcoin

€71,438

-0.3% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,068

-0.42% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1187

In this edition · 6

Editorial

This Tuesday, October 27, 2026 opens on a crypto market weakened by three weeks of pullback and a strong dependence on the central banks’ calendar. Bitcoin trades slightly below 71 438 € (≈79 918 $), after losing nearly 3 % over the previous week, while Ether circles around 2 068 € (≈2 314 $). Altcoins follow the move, often with greater volatility, without any specific catalyst. In this context, the US Federal Reserve’s decision tomorrow, October 28, and the European Central Bank’s conference the same day crystallize expectations: both institutions are expected to maintain restrictive monetary conditions, which limits risk appetite. On the technological front, the day is marked by the postponement of the Glamsterdam test on Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet, evidence that priority remains on smart contract security rather than deployment speed. On the regulatory side, the finalization by the US OCC of the GENIUS rules for bank stablecoins and the forthcoming European sanctions on certain crypto-assets serve as reminders that the regulatory environment remains in flux. This edition offers readers a cautious framework for reading these intertwined issues: monetary policy, technical upgrades and tightening regulation.

Markets

Crypto markets: a third week of decline ahead of the Fed decision

The crypto-asset market recorded a third consecutive week of correction between October 19 and 26, as investors reposition themselves cautiously ahead of the next decision by the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. The dynamic illustrates an increased sensitivity of Bitcoin and large-cap prices to monetary policy expectations.

Between October 19 and 25, 2026, Bitcoin fell by about 2.4%, ending the week around 71 700 € (80 154 $) after a high near 75 900 € (84 898 $). This third week of consecutive decline comes amid a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Fed meeting, as markets weigh the probability of a hold or a further adjustment to policy rates. Traders appear to be gradually reducing their risk exposure, with no specific catalyst within the crypto ecosystem over this period.

On the evening of October 26, the retreat continued: Bitcoin was trading around 71 300 € (79 817 $), down about 0.28% on the session, while Ether gave up 0.58% to trade near 2 070 € (2 313,61 $). A basket of large caps including BTC, ETH, SOL, NEAR, XRP and ADA showed negative moves ranging from 0.05% to 1.43% on the day. These moderate declines, in the absence of major news, fit within the broader market correction.

According to estimates as of October 26, 2026, total crypto market capitalization reached about 2,42 billions of euros (2,71 billions of dollars), with Bitcoin dominance at around 59.5%. This concentration underscores the central role of the asset in the market’s overall dynamics: BTC pullback phases continue to mechanically weigh on the whole segment. At the same time, outflows recorded from traditional investment vehicles illustrate a broader repositioning of investors in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of several hundred million euros over the week, including a single session marked by about 568 M€ (635,5 M$) of negative flows. In derivatives, more than 723 M€ (810 M$) of positions were liquidated in 24 hours during a volatility spike, mostly long positions. These elements confirm the fragility of leveraged positions on an asset class that is highly reactive to rate expectations. With the Fed decision approaching, caution remains the rule among many market participants.

Macro

Central bank week: the Fed and the ECB under crypto markets' watch

On the eve of key decisions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins move in an environment marked by rising bond yields and weakened risk appetite. Crypto investors now scrutinize every nuance of monetary messaging as closely as signals from within the sector.

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Technology

Ethereum postpones the Glamsterdam test on Hoodi and reaffirms priority on security

The Ethereum Foundation has postponed the activation of Glamsterdam on the Hoodi testnet with no new date, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026. The delay, motivated by potential risks around EIP-8037, illustrates the choice to prioritize security auditing over pressure from the scaling timetable.

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Regulation

United States: the OCC finalizes the GENIUS rule and outlines the framework for bank-issued stablecoins

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) adopted on October 21, 2026 the final rule implementing the GENIUS Act, which governs activities related to stablecoins and digital assets of U.S. national banks. This clarification comes as the SEC prepares a parallel regime for securities backed by crypto-assets, against the backdrop of similar debates in Europe around MiCAR and sanctions.

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Security

Security upgrades: Zcash prepares for NU7, the Lightning Network under academic scrutiny

As the Zcash NU7 upgrade approaches and in light of a new study on Lightning Network security patches, the question of nodes being effectively updated returns to the forefront for operators and users alike.

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Markets

Tokenomics under pressure: what does the Folks Finance unlock of October 27, 2026 mean?

On October 27, 2026, Folks Finance sees about 25,6 k FOLKS tokens unlocked, i.e. nearly 56,6 k€ of units becoming transferable. A modest event in relative size, but one to watch in a market already weakened by the decline of altcoins and rising liquidations on derivatives.

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Coming up

  • October 27, 2026 – Closed meeting of the Federal Reserve Board at 9:30 (Washington) on monetary policy issues, ahead of the FOMC decision. Source: Federal Reserve recent postings.
  • October 27, 2026 – Unlock of Folks Finance (FOLKS) tokens for an amount of about 56,6 k€ (≈63,3 k$) according to the Alpha Finance schedule, or 0.14% of the circulating supply. Source: Alpha Finance token unlocks.
  • October 28, 2026 – Monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve (FOMC, meeting of October 27–28) and press conference, market anticipating no change to the policy rate. Sources: AP News, PWS Markets.
  • October 28, 2026 – Meeting of the ECB Governing Council in Frankfurt (day 2, monetary policy meeting) followed by the press conference. Source: ECB official calendar.
  • End of October 2026 (not precisely dated) – New schedule expected for the Glamsterdam upgrade test on Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet, after a postponement decided on October 22, 2026. Sources: Ethereum Foundation blog, CoinDesk.
  • Early November 2026 (around November 6) – Planned activation of the NU7 upgrade of Zcash on mainnet, with new consensus rules and security fixes. Source: PulseHawk network upgrade calendar, QuickNode status.