Crypto between market testing and regulatory pressure

Abstract illustration showing intertwined luminous lines evoking both a digital coin and a candlestick chart, on a dark background, symbolizing the influence of ETFs on bitcoin and ether prices.

Bitcoin

€75,173

-2.38% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,378

-2.41% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1251

In this edition · 5

Editorial

The session of October 2, 2026 confirmed a mixed environment for digital assets on the eve of a new wave of macroeconomic data. Bitcoin is trading around 75 000 € after a rebound fueled by sustained flows into spot ETFs, while Ether is consolidating below 2 400 €. Derivatives and DeFi markets show slight expansion, but without exuberance, in a context of caution ahead of U.S. employment figures. In Europe, the news remains largely dominated by the post‑MiCA landscape. ESMA has just proposed adjustments to the framework to make it clearer and more robust in the face of new services, even though the transition period for providers ended on July 1. European operators are thus entering a phase where non‑compliance risks are becoming very concrete. On the technological front, the ecosystem is closely watching the preparation for Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, which will be tested on Sepolia from October 6, and yesterday’s emergency activation on Arbitrum serves as a reminder that on‑chain governance must sometimes quickly arbitrate between stability and continuity of service. Finally, October’s opening will be marked by a series of token unlocks of varying sizes, inviting a careful reading of liquidity schedules.

Markets

Bitcoin and ether supported by ETFs ahead of U.S. jobs data

Buoyed by massive inflows into spot ETFs, bitcoin and ether are consolidating near their recent highs as the market awaits the September U.S. jobs report. The Federal Reserve’s reaction to that data remains central to liquidity and volatility expectations for digital assets.

On October 2, 2026, bitcoin is trading around 75 200 € (84 616 $), down slightly intraday by 0.45% according to a mid-session market snapshot. Ether is trading at about 2 380 € (2 681 $) at the same time, down roughly 0.9%. A separate reading shows an open near 2 405 € (2 705,58 $), illustrating moderate intraday volatility. These moves occur in a consolidation phase after several sessions of gains supported by flows into exchange-traded investment products.

Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about 2.12 bn € (2.39 bn $) of inflows last week, extending a nine-day streak of inflows totaling nearly 2.76 bn € (3.1 bn $) before a reversal to outflows on September 30. This dynamic highlights the structural role of these vehicles in price discovery and market liquidity. Recent outflows, however, are prompting caution among participants, with some managers citing the risk of rapid capital rotations around major macroeconomic releases.

Meanwhile, decentralized finance (DeFi) market capitalization rose about 0.6% to reach 78.7 bn € (88.6 bn $) at the start of the week. This gradual uptick suggests a slight resurgence of activity on lending, exchange and on-chain derivatives protocols after a quieter phase. While the DeFi segment remains more volatile and less liquid than large caps like bitcoin and ether, its recovery helps improve overall crypto market depth and the diversity of flows.

Traders are positioning ahead of the October 2, 2026 release of the monthly U.S. jobs report for September, a key indicator for interest rate expectations. A labor market deemed too strong could revive the scenario of prolonged restrictive monetary conditions, potentially impacting risk appetite and thus trading volumes in crypto assets. Conversely, signs of slowing would fuel speculation about future easing, in an environment already strongly influenced by ETF flows and the search for diversification.

Sources

Regulation

MiCA Already Under Pressure: ESMA Calls for a Clearer, Safer Framework

Barely fully applicable, the MiCA regulation is already the subject of proposed adjustments. In a response published on 30 September 2026, ESMA calls for clarifying and strengthening the text, particularly on governance, risks and emerging services such as DeFi.

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Security

Arbitrum: an emergency update rekindles the debate on technical governance of layer 2s

On October 2, 2026, Arbitrum’s Security Council triggered an emergency protocol update after identifying technical risks deemed significant. The episode highlights the central role of governance mechanisms in crisis management on layer 2 solutions.

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Technology

Ethereum Prepares Glamsterdam: a Decisive Test on Sepolia Before Mainnet

The Glamsterdam upgrade will be activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, 2026, at epoch 353 024, to test a new block production and verification architecture. No schedule has yet been set for the mainnet, giving teams room to refine the protocol.

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Markets

October of unlocks: mapping supply pressures on altcoins

With 1 172 token unlock events recorded in October 2026 for approximately 3,0 M€, the month opens under the sign of additional supply that is diffuse but sometimes concentrated on certain altcoins. Investors are watching the first week closely and several end-of-month milestones, where the percentages of float released could weigh on prices.

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Coming up

October 5, 2026 – Unlock of 77,3 millions of Cashtree Token (CTTC), i.e. approximately 9,8 k€ (11,0 k$), representing 4,55 % of the float and 1,55 % of the total supply, according to Alpha Finance.
October 6, 2026 – Activation of Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet at 13:53:36 UTC; operators must have updated execution and consensus clients before the deadline.
October 8, 2026 – ECB publication of the detailed accounts of the monetary policy meeting of June 10‑11, 2026, a milestone followed by markets to refine rate expectations.
October 20, 2026 – Unlock of 6,68 % of the supply of the ZRO token, referenced in DeFiLlama’s unlock calendars.
October 28, 2026 – Announced monthly reduction of approximately 65 % in the unlocking volume of the Grass token, which will gradually change the supply pressure on the secondary market.