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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 10, 2026 edition

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Stablecoins under pressure, security on alert, adoption underway

Abstract illustration showing a bitcoin price curve oscillating within a stable horizontal band, on a dark background evoking both financial charts and waves symbolizing macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin

€73,795

+0.53% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,227

+0.3% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1205

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of October 10, 2026 opens on a crypto-asset market in a consolidation phase, with bitcoin around 73 800 € after a bumpier start to the month. This relative lull nevertheless masks growing tensions on several fronts. On the regulatory side, ESMA is taking a tougher stance toward issuers and platforms of stablecoins not compliant with MiCA, giving them three months to stop providing certain services to European clients. At the same time, Greece is proposing a new tax framework for crypto-asset gains, illustrating the gradual normalization of this segment within national fiscal policies. The news also reminds us that adoption and risk advance together. Samsung is preparing native integration of USDC transfers on more than 80 million smartphones, bringing stablecoins closer to mainstream use. At the same time, new details about the hack related to CryptoBilis and Ledger, as well as the assessment of the 2026 attacks, underscore the persistence of operational vulnerabilities. Finally, preparation for Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade and a busy schedule of unlocks and central bank meetings promise a fourth quarter rich in catalysts, both positive and negative.

Markets

Bitcoin consolidates around 73 800 € amid a macro backdrop still under strain

Bitcoin stabilizes around 73 800 € per unit on 10 October 2026, after a month-start marked by a moderate pullback from a recent peak. Behind this apparent calm, macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks continue to feed significant volatility across the market and its derivatives.

On 10 October 2026, the price of bitcoin stands around 73 800 € (≈ 82 600 $) per unit, slightly down from the previous day, when the close was about 73 300 € (≈ 82 100 $). Data from Investing.com and StatMuse point to a consolidation phase within a tight price band, around 73 700–73 800 €. This stabilization follows several choppy sessions but without a marked trend break, a development that draws the attention of trading desks and treasuries already exposed to bitcoin.

Over the month of October 2026, historical data from Bitcoinformed indicate an average price close to 75 100 € (≈ 84 191 $) per bitcoin, with a peak above 77 200 € (≈ 86 500 $) on 4 October. The current level around 73 800 € therefore reflects a moderate retreat since the start of the month. For risk managers, this measured correction, in a context of still-high prices, may prompt a reevaluation of stress scenarios and hedging thresholds.

Underlying volatility remains very present. On 8 October 2026, CoinDesk reported that bitcoin briefly fell below the equivalent of 74 000 € (≈ 83 000 $), as rising oil prices and reports of a possible strike plan in Iran weighed on risk appetite. This move illustrates the crypto market’s sensitivity to geopolitical signals, even when the price appears broadly in a consolidation phase.

At the same time, CoinDesk notes that liquidations on crypto derivatives reached around 488 M€ (≈ 547 M$) in a single session. Such a volume highlights the still-significant leverage in the ecosystem and the speed at which abrupt adjustments can occur. For institutional players and corporate treasuries, these figures argue for close monitoring of derivatives exposures and increased vigilance on margins and collateral calls during periods of macro and geopolitical shocks.

For trading desks as well as companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets, the current environment calls for carefully distinguishing spot price from real risk. The consolidation band near 73 800 € conceals episodes of rapid volatility linked to exogenous events. In this context, liquidity management, the calibration of value-at-risk models, and the regular updating of stress tests emerge as central tools to navigate this uncertain market phase.

Regulation

ESMA: three months to close the chapter on stablecoins not compliant with MiCA

On 8 October 2026, ESMA gave regulated platforms roughly three months to stop offering non‑authorised stablecoins under MiCA to EU clients. Exchanges will have to decide quickly between issuers, with a direct impact on euro‑stablecoin liquidity.

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Regulation

Greece: proposed 10% tax on crypto capital gains, with annual allowance of 500 €

Athens has opened for consultation a draft bill introducing a flat 10% tax on individuals’ crypto-asset gains, coupled with a 500 € allowance and a penalty-free regularization window. A reform that places Greece in the lower part of the European range and rekindles the debate over member states’ fiscal attractiveness.

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Adoption

Samsung Wallet integrates USDC and Solana: 82 millions of Galaxy in the era of stablecoins

Starting the last week of October 2026, Samsung Wallet will offer eligible Galaxy users in the United States cross‑border transfers in USDC, supported notably by Solana. A step that brings stablecoins closer to large‑scale everyday use.

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Security

CryptoBilis–Ledger Hack: nearly 83 M€ siphoned off, new warning on operational security in 2026

An investigation by Bitquery published on October 9, 2026, estimates that about 82,9 M€ (92,9 M$) were drained from 311 wallets linked to the CryptoBilis hack and compromised Ledger devices. In a context where 2026 has already recorded nearly 2,41 Mds € (2,7 Mds $) in thefts, the case illustrates the vulnerability of the operational chain beyond smart contracts alone.

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Technology

Glamsterdam: the Ethereum upgrade takes shape after its activation on Sepolia

The Glamsterdam upgrade of Ethereum was activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, 2026, paving the way for deployments on Hoodi and then on Mainnet in the fourth quarter. Between promises of increased capacity and uncertainties about the exact timeline, the DeFi ecosystem and node operators are preparing for a sensitive technical transition.

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Coming up

  • October 14, 2026: unlock of 5.7% of STRK supply (vesting unlock) expected, according to the DefiLlama schedule, a significant event for STRK token liquidity. (Source: https://defillama.com/calendar)
  • October 17, 2026: several token unlocks for DeFi and infrastructure are scheduled according to various aggregators (Toolz, CryptoCompass), likely to temporarily affect liquidity and selling pressure on certain assets. (Example: https://toolz.trade/token-unlocks/)
  • Q4 2026 (exact date to be confirmed): deployment of the Glamsterdam upgrades on the Ethereum Hoodi and Mainnet networks, after activation on Sepolia; developers are warned of possible transaction failures around the upgrade windows. (Source: https://docs.chain.link/cre/network-upgrades)
  • October 27–28, 2026: next FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, identified in the monetary policy calendar, potentially decisive for risk appetite for digital assets. (Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm)
  • Last week of October 2026: planned launch of cross-border USDC transfers in Samsung Wallet for about 82 million Galaxy users in the United States, which could support the use of payment stablecoins. (Source: https://news.samsung.com/us/samsung-wallet-bring-stablecoin-access-eligible-galaxy-users-us/)
  • Early January 2027 (3 months after October 8, 2026): implicit deadline given to European crypto-asset platforms to stop services on stablecoins not compliant with MiCA, according to ESMA’s opinion, under threat of enhanced supervisory measures. (Source: https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-sets-out-supervisory-expectations-services-related-unauthorised)