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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 11, 2026 edition

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Crypto between regulatory tightening and liquidity shocks

Abstract illustration showing a highly volatile orange wavy curve crossing blue bars symbolizing order book depth, against a dark background evoking tension in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin

€74,086

+0.41% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,238

+0.51% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1207

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of October 11, 2026, opens on a crypto market under pressure, but still far from panic. Bitcoin is trading around 74 000 €, after several sessions marked by net outflows from US spot ETFs and increased volatility. Ethereum remains in the 2 200–2 250 € range, as its ecosystem prepares for new technical leaps. In parallel, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer. Thailand is finalizing an architecture for crypto ETFs focused on Bitcoin and Ether, while Greece is advancing a 10 % capital gains tax project, a sign that digital asset taxation remains in motion in Europe. MiCA also continues to push platforms to clean up their stablecoin offerings. Security is not overlooked, with a new detailed assessment of the hack related to Ledger / CryptoBilis, reminding that operational risks remain high. Finally, the token unlock schedule intensifies for the fourth quarter, adding an additional liquidity constraint. In this edition, we offer a cautious interpretation of these signals, without extrapolating beyond the available facts.

Markets

Bitcoin under pressure: ETF outflows test liquidity resilience

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly €1.09 Bn in withdrawals over a week, amidst increased volatility and a deeper order book. Market signals suggest a more institutionalized asset, but still exposed to liquidity shocks.

As of October 10, 2026, several weekly summaries estimate net outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs at approximately €1.09 Bn ($1.22 Bn) over one week. These negative flows coincide with a price retreat from early October highs. According to a market recap dated October 10, Bitcoin was recently trading around €73,800, up 0.25% over 24 hours, while Ether was near €2,224, slightly down over the same period. This data supports the idea of a consolidation phase after the early autumn rally.

According to a CoinDesk analysis reported on October 10, 2026, the 1% order book depth around Bitcoin's price has increased by approximately 75% in one year. This improvement in visible spot liquidity contrasts with the situation of altcoins, many of which still have a value depth lower than that of early 2025. The market thus appears increasingly polarized: a Bitcoin better equipped to absorb large orders, facing an alternative universe where liquidity remains more fragile.

Commentators also note that Bitcoin has already recorded 10 days of variation exceeding three standard deviations in 2026, for an annualized volatility close to 46%. This high-risk regime occurs as the asset is now largely held via ETFs, which can amplify the impact of flow movements on the spot price. The combination of significant ETF volumes, increased order book depth, and sustained volatility reinforces the importance of monitoring these indicators to anticipate liquidity shocks.

Several analyses published between October 5 and 10, 2026, link ETF outflows and market nervousness to a more strained macro context, marked by interest rates and commodities, as well as profit-taking after the early autumn rally. For institutional and retail investors alike, the dynamics of spot ETFs and the quality of order book liquidity are becoming advanced signals of market robustness. Without prejudging future price trajectories, these elements highlight a Bitcoin that is both more mature and still sensitive to flow reversals.

In this context, monitoring ETF flows, order book depth, and realized volatility appears central to assessing the market's ability to absorb forced sales or rapid repositioning. Aggregated data as of October 10, 2026, shows an asset supported by a deeper trading infrastructure than a year ago, but subject to significant outflows and an uncertain macro environment. Prudence remains essential in a market where liquidity is improving, but without erasing the risks of sudden movements.

Regulation

Greece, MiCA and stablecoins: towards a coordinated tightening of the crypto framework in Europe

Athens is consulting on a 10% tax on crypto capital gains, while the application of MiCA tightens the noose on non-compliant stablecoins. For European investors, the combination of national taxation and European regulation redefines the conditions for accessing, holding, and declaring crypto-assets.

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Regulation

Thailand: Framework for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Takes Effect October 16

The Thai SEC has formalized a regulatory framework for Bitcoin and Ether-backed ETFs, scheduled to take effect on October 16, 2026. This step confirms the controlled dissemination of indirect exposure products to crypto assets in Southeast Asia.

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Security

Ledger / CryptoBilis Hack: €82.9M diverted, a second wave obfuscated by Tornado Cash

According to a report published on October 10, 2026, by PublicAML, the so-called Ledger / CryptoBilis hack allegedly diverted approximately €82.9M ($92.9M) in digital assets. The incident, involving third-party integrations and user keys, rekindles the debate on operational security in the crypto ecosystem.

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Technology

Ethereum between Glamsterdam and “bunker mode”: network resilience put to the test by AI risk

While the Glamsterdam update is being tested on Sepolia with blocks up to 200 million gas, a call for “bunker mode” in the face of possible AI-assisted attacks revives the debate on Ethereum's cryptographic robustness. These two dynamics raise the question of the ecosystem's preparation for long-term threats.

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Markets

A fourth quarter under pressure from token unlocks: Arbitrum, Monad, PUMP and other cases to watch

A concentrated schedule of token unlocks is expected between October and December 2026, with several operations representing hundreds of millions of euros in assets potentially released onto the market. Investors are particularly scrutinizing Arbitrum, Monad, Ethena, DoubleZero, and PUMP, in a context where the supply-demand balance could be tested.

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Coming up

  • October 12, 2026 – PUMP token unlock according to the schedule listed by Nundina, a supply event monitored for the current week.
  • October 15, 2026 – Arbitrum (ARB): unlock of approximately 56.13 M ARB, or ~11.15 M€ (12.5 M$), representing 0.56% of the total supply, mainly for the team and advisors (KlineScope, Q4 2026 calendar).
  • October 15, 2026 – Connex (CONX): unlock of approximately 1.32 M CONX, valued around 11.15 M€ (12.17 M$), representing 1.4% of the supply, for the treasury / reserve (Toolz, unlock schedule).
  • October 16, 2026 – Entry into force of Thai SEC rules governing crypto ETFs, initially limited to Bitcoin and Ether (Thai SEC / The Block).
  • November 24, 2026 – Large Monad unlock: ~16.6 Bn MON, or approximately 393 M€ (440 M$), first major cliff for the team and investors, considered one of the largest supply events of the quarter (KlineScope).
  • November 26, 2026 – Delayed start of HUMA's first internal unlock, after a six-month postponement, while ecosystem and treasury pockets remain active (RootData analysis of unlock schedules).