Macro
Bitcoin weathers monetary tightening: stakes of the Fed meeting on October 28
As of October 4, 2026, Bitcoin holds near 73 800 € despite a Fed rate hike and a tense regulatory environment in the United States. The FOMC meeting on October 28 is now seen as the main end‑of‑year macroeconomic test for the entire crypto market.
According to a market thread on fourth‑quarter 2026 outlooks, Bitcoin was trading on October 4 “near 83 000 $”, or about 73 800 € at the rate of 1 € = 1.1247 $. This holding above 70 000 € comes after heightened volatility since mid‑September, in an environment described as more uncertain on the macroeconomic and regulatory fronts. For many participants, the asset’s ability to keep this threshold conditions risk appetite across the rest of the crypto market.
The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to a range of 3.75 % to 4 % at the September 16, 2026 meeting, marking the first increase since 2023. This move represents a turning point after a long monetary pause and raises the cost of capital for all markets. In this tightening context, Bitcoin’s resilience is cautiously read as a sign of relative maturity, but analysts stress that the future path of rates remains the key variable.
Despite this tightening, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 2,39 Md€ (2,39 Md$) of net inflows in the week ending September 25, 2026, an annual record. The thread highlights this dynamic as evidence of sustained institutional demand, which helps cushion the impact of Fed announcements. However, the same participants remind that these flows can reverse quickly if rate expectations tighten again toward year‑end.
Analysts in the Reddit thread identify the FOMC meeting on October 28, 2026 as the main remaining macro catalyst for Bitcoin in 2026, due to uncertainty about the future pace of hikes. The 2022 experience is cited: a double shock combining rate hikes and regulatory tightening had caused a much sharper correction than today. This comparison feeds the idea of a more robust market structure, without ruling out sharp moves if the Fed’s rhetoric surprises to the upside on rates.