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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 7, 2026 edition

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Crypto: hesitant markets, regulatory pressure and upgrade cycle

Abstract illustration showing two upward price curves, one orange and the other blue, flattening under a horizontal line symbolizing a technical resistance, on a dark grid background reminiscent of a financial chart.

Bitcoin

€74,972

-1.77% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,329

-3.34% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1231

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of October 7, 2026 opens with the crypto market slightly retreating, even as US equity indices record new highs. Bitcoin falls below its recent peaks, in a context where the Federal Reserve has reiterated its determination to contain inflation, and where the next interest rate decision, expected on October 28, weighs on risk appetite. At the same time, US regulators are refining their doctrine. The Treasury withdraws two rule proposals judged too burdensome for mixers and non-custodial wallets, while the CFTC chair highlights a narrowed list of cryptocurrencies considered "commodities" within a developing federal framework. On the ground, the ecosystem nonetheless continues to develop: TOKEN2049 in Singapore confirms the institutional anchoring of certain use cases, from tokenized real-world assets to stablecoins. Several blockchains are planning major upgrades in the coming weeks, a sign that the technological dimension remains central, at a time when regulation is still seeking its durable benchmarks.

Markets

Bitcoin and Ether pause below their highs awaiting the Fed's next signals

On October 7, 2026, bitcoin and ether are consolidating below major technical resistances as markets scrutinize the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, in a context of still-restrictive monetary policy. This combination of factors increases cryptocurrencies' sensitivity to forthcoming macroeconomic signals.

On October 7, 2026, bitcoin closed around 74 634 € (83 821 $) on Coinbase Pro, down about 2% for the day, according to daily data compiled by Investing.com. This pullback comes after a broadly bullish start to October that brought the asset closer to its recent highs. As a reference, the market places bitcoin around 74 972 € (84 201 $), illustrating a consolidation phase rather than a clear trend reversal at this stage.

According to BusinessToday, the bitcoin market is currently hitting a resistance zone near 77 500 € (87 000 $), identified as a technical ceiling limiting the continuation of the rally that began in early October 2026. As long as this level is not breached with convincing volumes, the momentum remains fragile and exposed to macroeconomic news. This stalling occurs while many traders adjust their short-term positions, in an environment of monetary policy more restrictive than in previous cycles.

Ether also declined on October 7, 2026, in a market where participants favor cautious waiting. As a market reference, ether is trading around 2 329 € (2 615 $), far from the euphoria seen during previous speculative phases. BusinessToday points out that investors remain focused on signals from the Federal Reserve, which limits risk-taking across the crypto segment, despite the absence to date of any specific fundamental deterioration in the Ethereum ecosystem.

According to Kiplinger, the Fed raised its policy rate on September 16, 2026, and markets do not expect another hike at the next meeting on October 28, while pricing in the prospect of a persistently restrictive monetary policy. This framework mechanically reduces appetite for assets perceived as riskier, including cryptocurrencies, while increasing these markets' dependence on central bank announcements. At the same time, WEEX notes that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted new highs, a sign of continued risk appetite in equities.

This divergence between U.S. equity indices at highs and major cryptocurrencies in a pause highlights increased investor selectivity. Bitcoin, stuck below 77 500 € (87 000 $), and ether, in retreat, appear more sensitive to anticipated changes in the cost of capital. In this context, every Fed communication through the end of October could act as either a bullish or bearish catalyst. Market participants therefore favor a gradual approach, attentive to both technical levels and the macroeconomic calendar.

Regulation

The U.S. Treasury Withdraws Proposed Rules on Mixers: Toward a Cautious Rebalancing of Crypto Regulation

On October 6, 2026, FinCEN withdrew two highly contested rule proposals targeting mixing services and non-custodial wallets, citing a risk of impeding legitimate activity. Monitoring of suspicious flows remains unchanged, within an already extensive anti-money laundering framework.

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Regulation

The CFTC names six cryptocurrencies as "digital commodities" and launches a CTX/CAM framework

On October 6, 2026, CFTC Chair Michael Selig explicitly cited bitcoin, ether, solana, stellar, tezos and XRP as examples of "digital commodities" when launching a federal crypto regulatory process. A preliminary step, but one that could redraw the line between digital commodity derivatives and securities in the United States.

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Adoption

TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 showcases institutional adoption and the tokenization of real-world assets

On October 7 and 8, 2026, TOKEN2049 brings together around 25,000 professionals at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore for a program dominated by stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and institutional DeFi. An edition that sheds light on the priorities of major players for the coming years, far beyond crypto protocols alone.

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Technology

Shardeum, Canton, Enjin: an autumn 2026 marked by protocol upgrades

From Shardeum to Enjin via Canton, several networks are preparing major upgrades for October and November 2026, focused on on-chain governance, EVM compatibility and new token models. Important technical milestones that also come with coordination and governance risks.

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Macro

Fed and ECB: a fall of interest-rate decisions under close watch for digital assets

In fall 2026, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to follow up with key meetings in a context of prolonged high rates. A sequence that could have a lasting effect on liquidity and the valuation of cryptocurrencies in both Europe and the United States.

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Coming up

  • October 8, 2026: monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank and publication of the decisions and minutes of the Governing Council, watched for their impact on the euro and risky assets in Europe. (ecb.europa.eu)
  • October 10, 2026: MainNet upgrade of the Canton network, according to the timetable published by CantonNews, with adaptation of the protocol rules across the smart contract network. (cantonnews.org)
  • October 13, 2026 (estimated, 06:00 UTC): possible v1.1.0 upgrade of the Shardeum mainnet to Cosmos EVM v0.6.3, subject to governance approval at block 7 927 860. (shardeum.org)
  • October 28, 2026: next FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, awaited by rate markets and risk assets; analysts do not expect an immediate further hike, but a potentially hawkish tone. (kiplinger.com)
  • November 9, 2026: "Fort Canning" update of the Enjin Relaychain (runtime 1.8.0), first step before the activation of new governance and token features. (enjin.io)
  • November 16, 2026: planned activation of the "Fort Canning" upgrade on the Enjin Matrixchain (runtime 1.4.1), introducing OpenGov, NFT lending, expirable tokens and frozen attributes. (enjin.io)