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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 20, 2026 edition

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Crypto: bank cards, stablecoins and regulators redraw the playing field

An abstract, minimalist illustration depicting a fluctuating line trapped between two horizontal lines, symbolizing a range-bound market and consolidation.

Bitcoin

€72,979

-0.58% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,144

-0.42% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1247

In this edition · 6

Editorial

20 October 2026 opens on a crypto-asset market that is surprisingly calm on the surface, but being reshaped beneath the surface by regulators and payment infrastructures. Bitcoin holds around 72 880 € (≈ 81 938 $), far from its all-time highs but firmly anchored in a zone where ETF flows and macro-financial conditions set the tempo. Ethereum follows a similar trajectory, around 2 140 € (≈ 2 408 $), awaiting new technical tests on the network. Behind prices, regulatory projects are progressing. In Europe, ESMA clarifies its expectations regarding stablecoins that do not comply with MiCA. In the United States, the deadline for public consultation on the draft regulation “Regulation Crypto Assets” marks an important step in clarifying the legal status of tokens. In Asia, South Korea is already discussing a postponement of its crypto taxation. Finally, the Visa and Mastercard card networks are multiplying announcements around direct crypto payments and risk management services for stablecoins. Today’s edition invites readers to decipher these weak and strong signals, without risky extrapolation, in order to distinguish what is mere press release effect from what could structurally shape the European market.

Markets

Bitcoin stalls below 73 000 €: a market consolidating despite ETF flows

Bitcoin struggles to clear the 73 000 € mark, trading in a narrow range that signals a prolonged consolidation phase despite spot ETF activity.

On October 20, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around 72 852 € (81 938 $) after a slight drop of about 0.2% over the past 24 hours, according to KuCoin's daily market report. Investing.com data confirm this trend, with a close at 72 798 € (81 875,7 $) the day before, down 0.06%. This stagnation below the 73 000 € level reflects a period of indecision, where buyers and sellers are balanced, limiting significant directional moves in the short term.

This performance fits into an extended consolidation phase for the digital asset. Explore21 reveals that Bitcoin stands roughly 34.5% below its closing all-time high, which was 110 894 € (124 728 $) on October 6, 2025. Nearly a year after that peak, the market shows signs of maturation, with alternating periods of accumulation and distribution without initiating a marked new bullish trend, held back by a clear resistance.

Mobee Academy's analysis on October 20, 2026 highlights that Bitcoin has been trading since October 15 within a tightened closing range, oscillating between about 70 870 € (79 709 $) and 73 895 € (83 101 $). This "range" dynamic persists even with the influence of institutional investment products. On October 19, the spot ETF FBTC recorded net outflows of 74,33 millions € (83,6 M$), while the ETF IBIT reported no new inflows, indicating caution among some institutional investors.

The combination of these factors suggests a market searching for catalysts. Although ETFs initially brought new momentum, their flows now appear more volatile, even negative for some. Bitcoin's ability to break this resistance and exit its current range will likely depend on a shift in the overall macroeconomic balance or a renewed appetite for risk, which is not yet clearly visible in the data.

Sources

  1. 1.KuCoin – Crypto Daily Market Report – October 20, 2026
  2. 2.Investing.com – Bitcoin Historical Data
  3. 3.Explore21 – Bitcoin Price History
  4. 4.Mobee Academy – Bitcoin Price Today, October 20, 2026

Regulation

MiCA versus stablecoins: ESMA tightens the screws while the SEC closes its crypto consultation

On October 8, 2026, ESMA set out its prudential expectations for services related to non‑MiCA‑compliant stablecoins, while the U.S. SEC reaches the end of its public consultation on its draft "Regulation Crypto Assets" on October 20, 2026. Two strong signals reshaping the legal framework for issuers and service providers, well beyond national borders.

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Adoption

Visa, Mesh and Mastercard: stablecoins enter the mainstream payment circuit

On 20 October 2026, Mesh partnered with Visa to make crypto and stablecoin balances directly spendable at merchants on the network, while Mastercard unveiled a security service dedicated to stablecoins. These moves by the payment giants come amid tougher regulation in Europe around MiCA.

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Regulation

South Korea: the ruling party backs a new postponement of the 22 % tax on crypto gains to 2029

According to a Blockhead article relayed on 20 October 2026 by Sharpe Terminal, the ruling party in South Korea supports a proposal to defer until 2029 the implementation of a 22 % tax on capital gains from crypto assets. This potential new postponement comes after a series of consultations with the main local platforms.

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Technology

Ethereum prepares the "Hoodi" test at 200 million gas, a decisive stress test for the network

On October 26, 2026, Ethereum will conduct a load test called "Hoodi" with a cap of 200 million gas, according to the CryptoSlate news terminal. The goal: to assess the impact of a massive increase in the gas limit on network stability, transaction costs and security.

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Markets

Unlocking 7.59% of SOSO Supply: a Case Study of Overhang Risk on Altcoins

On October 24, 2026, 7.59% of SOSO’s supply will be unlocked, equivalent to about 6,96 M€ (7,83 M$), according to KuCoin. An anticipated event that brings back into focus the overhang risk on small caps.

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Coming up

  • 20 October 2026 – Deadline for the U.S. SEC public consultation on the draft regulation “Regulation Crypto Assets”, which should specify the treatment of many tokens under securities law (source: SEC / Regulation Crypto Assets file).
  • 24 October 2026 – Unlocking of SOSO tokens equivalent to 7,59 % of the circulating supply, for a value of approximately 6,96 M€ (≈ 7,83 M$) at the time of the estimate (source: KuCoin daily report of 20/10/2026).
  • 26 October 2026 – 200 million gas load test for Ethereum’s “Hoodi” upgrade, presented as a major trial to validate the network’s scaling capacity (source: CryptoSlate news terminal, entry of 19/10/2026).
  • End of October 2026 – Progressive implementation by European players of ESMA’s expectations on services related to stablecoins not compliant with MiCA, following the opinion published on 8 October 2026 (source: ESMA, opinion on non-compliant ARTs and EMTs).
  • By the end of 2026 – Discussion in the South Korean Parliament on a bill to postpone to 2029 the entry into force of the 22 % tax on gains from crypto-assets (source: Sharpe Terminal aggregator relaying Blockhead, 20/10/2026).