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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 18, 2026 edition

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Crypto: markets on pause, regulators on the offensive

Abstract illustration showing undulating red and orange price curves crossed with bluish lines on a dark grid background, evoking the tension between high inflation and crypto market movements.

Bitcoin

€72,722

+0.21% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,147

-0.59% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1246

In this edition · 6

Editorial

This Sunday, October 18, 2026 opens on crypto markets that are surprisingly calm given the macroeconomic shocks of the week. Bitcoin is trading around 72 000 € and ether near 2 100 €, slightly down year‑on‑year, even though US inflation once again surprised to the upside. Data published in recent days show rising consumer and producer prices, without a marked reaction from digital assets, which are consolidating after a bullish cycle that began at the end of 2025. At the same time, the regulatory landscape continues to tighten. In the United States, the CFTC has opened a large consultation to specifically regulate transactions and markets in crypto‑assets. In Europe, debates now focus on the practical application of MiCA, particularly for stablecoins, with stricter guidance on non‑compliant tokens. Finally, the mechanics of token unlocks remain a key technical factor for liquidity, while the coming week concentrates several significant unlocks on layer‑1 and DeFi protocols. This edition provides a factual overview of these dynamics, without extrapolating beyond the available data.

Macro

Bitcoin and ether remain surprisingly stable despite another US inflation surge

As of October 18, 2026, bitcoin trades around 72 300 € and ether near 2 132 €, slightly down on the day but showing no marked reaction to two US inflation readings that beat expectations. This inertia rekindles the debate over the macroeconomic sensitivity of the main crypto assets.

On the night of October 17–18, 2026, a market snapshot put bitcoin around 72 300 € (≈81 328 $) and ether at about 2 132 € (≈2 396,23 $), marginally down over 24 hours. These levels come against a backdrop where the market has already corrected year‑on‑year, but without any recent sharp move. A specific price indicator for ether reported a quote of 2 135 € (≈2 400,31 $) on October 18, representing a limited decline of 0.84 % compared with the previous day.

Over twelve months, performances diverge between the two majors. A weekly review dated October 18, 2026, estimates bitcoin’s retreat at 25.9 % year‑over‑year, versus –38.8 % for ether. The gap between the two assets widened over the autumn, reinforcing the perception of bitcoin as relatively more resilient. At the same time, the ether price indicator cites an annual decline of 37.35 %, placing the asset’s dynamics near the lower end of the recent historical range.

Cumulative price data for 2026 show that ether went from around 2 643 € (≈2 970 $) on January 1 to nearly 2 153 € (≈2 422 $) on October 18, 2026, a drop of approximately 18.5 % year‑to‑date. Despite this gradual erosion, the market is not reacting violently to the week’s macro surprises. This more stretched trajectory over time, rather than one punctuated by isolated shocks, complicates reading ether simply as a 'risk asset' or as a potential safe haven.

The contrast between these relatively smoothed price curves and the US economic calendar is notable. On October 18, 2026, a weekly roundup noted that the week was marked by two inflation releases above consensus, including a producer price index up 1.3 % month‑on‑month and 6.3 % year‑on‑year. Despite these signals of persistent price pressures, neither bitcoin nor ether appears to react sharply, leaving open the question of their macroeconomic role in autumn 2026.

Regulation

The CFTC opens a structuring consultation on a framework dedicated to crypto‑asset markets

On October 13, 2026, the CFTC published a notice of proposed rulemaking aimed at clarifying the application of the Commodity Exchange Act to transactions in crypto‑assets. The industry has until December 14, 2026 to comment on this text, which could redefine the U.S. oversight of derivatives and leveraged transactions in crypto.

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Regulation

After the end of MiCA’s transitional period, ESMA tightens the noose on non‑compliant stablecoins

Since 1 July 2026, the end of MiCA’s transitional periods has put non‑compliant stablecoins under pressure in the European Union. ESMA’s recent clarifications are forcing platforms to urgently revise the offerings available to European clients.

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Markets

An October under pressure: token unlocks concentrated on Solana, Base and BNB Chain

With 1 101 scheduled vesting events and more than 5,40 M€ of tokens ready to be released, October 2026 looks set to be a tense month for several ecosystems. Solana, Base and some DeFi protocols are among the most exposed to potential increases in volatility and selling pressure.

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Technology

Ethereum: focus on the Glamsterdam and Hoodi upgrades, between testnets and client security

In autumn 2026, Ethereum is preparing two major upgrades, Glamsterdam and Hoodi, first tested on Sepolia before a phased mainnet rollout. Beyond technical aspects, these developments could influence layer-2 fees and the protocol’s ability to absorb increasing activity.

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Security

Liquidations on Leverage and Awakening of Old Wallets: The Chain Sends Mixed Signals

On October 18, 2026, heavy liquidations on ether derivatives and the movement of bitcoins idle for more than 12 years illustrate the coexistence of speculative bets and delayed profit-taking in an overall stable market.

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Coming up

  • October 22, 2026 – Large unlock of the LMTS token on Base (~2,55 M€ of units released, i.e. ~2,87 M$) according to Vestream, likely to increase the protocol Sablier’s floating supply.
  • October 24, 2026 – Unlock of the JUPy token on Solana (~0,20 M€ i.e. ~0,225 M$), identified among the major October unlocks by Vestream and Token Radar.
  • October 26, 2026 – Scheduled activation of Ethereum’s “Hoodi” upgrade on October 26 at 17:42 UTC, according to technical discussions on r/ethereum, with security fixes and performance adjustments.
  • October 18, 2026 – Day of unlocks totaling about 9,9 M€ (11,1 M$) of aggregate value across several tokens, according to the Token Radar calendar, including a new tranche for PARTI on BNB Smart Chain.
  • November 15, 2026 – Unlock of 127 M STRK tokens (Starknet), i.e. about 7,26 M€ (8,16 M$), corresponding to 1,67% of the supply, benefiting investors and early contributors.
  • December 14, 2026 – Deadline to submit comments to the CFTC on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Markets”, the first step toward a dedicated federal framework for crypto derivatives in the United States.