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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 12, 2026 edition

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Crypto: markets shaken by macro, Europe tightens the framework, October marked by unlocks

Abstract illustration showing a very volatile price chart gradually transforming into a more stable line, on a background in blue and gray tones evoking a calmer but less liquid market.

Bitcoin

€74,999

+1.35% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,288

+2.39% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.122

In this edition · 6

Editorial

On the eve of a new week of macro data and central bank meetings, the crypto ecosystem enters this Monday, October 12, 2026 in a climate of caution. After the tariff shock of October 10, which triggered the largest wave of liquidations in the history of crypto derivatives according to ESMA, Bitcoin and Ether prices have stabilized but on reduced volumes. This apparent calm masks an increased sensitivity to upcoming U.S. monetary policy signals. In Europe, the move is toward regulatory clarification. The EU Council has just agreed on key elements of the market integration and supervision package, which will strengthen ESMA’s role with respect to crypto-asset service providers. At the same time, the authority is publishing an opinion targeting stablecoins that do not comply with MiCA, with expectations of stricter supervision. On the technical side, the Ethereum network is preparing for the Dencun upgrade, while October concentrates a series of significant unlocks across several tokens, likely to locally affect liquidity. today’s edition offers readers a factual overview of these intersecting dynamics – markets, regulation, macro and technology – without extrapolating beyond the available data.

Markets

After the tariff shock, Bitcoin and Ether stabilize but volumes contract

Two days after an episode of extreme volatility triggered by the announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, Bitcoin and Ether have partially recovered but on declining volumes. Market participants are now refocusing on upcoming US monetary policy signals, seen as the main determinant of crypto liquidity in the short term.

On October 10 and 11, 2026, the announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports led to an intraday drop of more than 12% for Bitcoin and 15% for Ether, according to a report by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) published in March 2026. The episode illustrates the persistent sensitivity of major digital assets to macroeconomic shocks, in a context where market structure remains heavily interconnected with derivatives markets and stablecoin liquidity.

ESMA estimates that this session triggered around 16,9 Mds € (19 Mds $) of automatic liquidations of derivative positions, making it the largest day of liquidations in the history of the crypto market. The scale of these forced unwinds highlights the central role of leverage in price dynamics. It also underscores how quickly trade policy announcements can be transmitted to digital markets via futures markets and margin products.

A market update dated October 11, 2026 indicated Bitcoin around 74 000 € (83 000 $) and Ether near 2 235 € (2 506 $), in a consolidation phase of low volatility after the initial shock. These levels marked a relative stabilization, but in an environment described as more cautious, where many players reduce their directional exposure and closely monitor flows on derivatives platforms.

Our price reference of October 12 now places Bitcoin around 74 999 € (84 149 $) and Ether around 2 288 € (2 568 $), signaling a market that has regained some of the ground lost since the October 10 shock. Market commentary published on October 11 highlights a repositioning of operators around upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s tightening schedule, viewed as the main liquidity catalysts for crypto-assets in the short term.

Regulation

Crypto supervision in the EU: the 9 October agreement strengthens ESMA's role, without total centralisation

On 9 October 2026, the Council of the EU reached a political agreement on key elements of the “Market Integration and Supervision Package”, which gives ESMA direct supervision of the most significant crypto players. Other providers will remain under national control, within a harmonised framework, confirming a mixed model rather than full centralisation.

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Regulation

Non‑MiCA-compliant stablecoins: ESMA frames supervision and sets its red lines

On 8 October 2026, ESMA published an opinion detailing supervisors’ expectations for crypto services related to ART and EMT stablecoins that do not comply with MiCA. A strong signal to issuers and platforms, while the press sees a possible de facto veto on some major stablecoins.

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Macro

Fed: Prolonged Uncertainty Over Rates, October Timeline in the Spotlight for the Crypto Market

Recent communications from the Federal Reserve reveal a divergence of views on the need for another rate hike before year-end, fueling persistent uncertainty that shapes investor expectations, notably in the digital asset market.

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Technology

Ethereum approaching Dencun: a decisive test for rollup costs

Scheduled for October 23, 2026, the Dencun upgrade is set to introduce proto‑danksharding and temporary data “blobs,” with the goal of sustainably reducing rollup costs. Its success will be watched as a key indicator of Ethereum’s future competitiveness against low‑fee blockchains.

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Markets

October of unlocks: 1,59 Md€ of tokens set to be released, a key week for several major projects

Nearly 1,59 Md€ (1,78 Md$) of tokens are scheduled to be unlocked in October 2026 among the top 300 market caps, according to several specialized aggregators. Investors are closely watching this new wave of potential dilution, concentrated on a few pivotal dates including October 12, 15 and 16.

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Coming up

  • October 13, 2026 – Unlock of Optimism (OP) tokens as part of the Q1 2025 vesting schedule, an event monitored for its potential impact on the liquidity of Ethereum’s rollup ecosystem. Source: https://cryptotldr.io/events
  • October 15, 2026 – Starknet (STRK) and Sei (SEI) unlocks: release of around 127 M STRK (~13,7 M€) and 97,8 M SEI (~6,1 M€) for teams and investors, representing about 1.5 to 1.7% of each token’s supply. Source: https://mrnasdog.com/token-unlocks
  • October 16, 2026 – Estimated monthly unlock of Arbitrum (ARB) at 92,7 M ARB (~16,3 M€), the sixth step of a 36-month schedule, monitored for its effect on layer 2 liquidity. Source: https://mrnasdog.com/token-unlocks
  • October 23, 2026 – Ethereum network Dencun upgrade, presented as a major step to reduce rollup data costs via proto-danksharding and to improve scalability. Sources: https://cryptotldr.io/events, https://ethereum.org/roadmap/dencun
  • October 27–28, 2026 – FOMC meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, with a rate decision expected on October 28; the minutes released on October 7 leave the door open to another hike by year-end. Sources: https://fedratecalc.com/us-economic-calendar/october-2026/, https://apnews.com/article/b7ed20e31e1a6fa5da6d78e5fe35b0c3
  • October 15–16, 2026 – Meeting of EU leaders to review the market integration and supervision package, including the extension of ESMA’s powers over certain crypto service providers. Source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/et/press/press-releases/2026/10/09/savings-and-investments-union-council-agrees-key-elements-of-crucial-measures-to-deepen-eu-capital-markets/