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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 15, 2026 edition

Latest available edition — today's is on its way.

Stablecoins under scrutiny, networks upgrading

Abstract illustration showing a large golden sphere placed above a dark grid of smaller geometric shapes, evoking a dominant bitcoin within a highly concentrated crypto market.

Bitcoin

€72,720

-2.53% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,124

-5.2% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1224

In this edition · 6

Editorial

This October 15, 2026, the crypto-asset market remains in a digestion phase after a marked bullish cycle. Bitcoin is trading around 72 600 € per unit, far from its highs but in a context where the sector’s total market capitalization remains close to several thousand billions of euros. The dynamic is now less driven by fashion effects than by infrastructure and regulatory issues. In Europe, the day is dominated by the decision of the European Banking Authority to classify USDC as the first “significant e-money token” under MiCA. This status strengthens prudential requirements applied to a stablecoin already widely used, and paves the way for joint supervision starting in November 2026. At the same time, Solana is preparing to activate Alpenglow, a major upgrade aiming for transaction finality on the order of a few hundred milliseconds. Ahead of upcoming decisions by the Fed and the ECB, these technical and regulatory developments are a reminder that crypto-asset trajectories remain closely tied to the macro-financial framework and the sector’s ability to manage its own risks.

Markets

Bitcoin stabilizes around 72 600 € in a crypto market still dominated by a few giants

On 15 October 2026, bitcoin trades around 72 600 € in a market where the ten largest crypto-assets account for nearly 89 % of total market capitalization. This configuration continues to weigh on the perceived overall risk associated with digital assets.

On 15 October 2026, bitcoin is trading around 72 600 € (≈81 538 $) after a decline of about 2 % over 24 hours, according to aggregated market data. A reading taken at 00:13 UTC the same day places BTC near 72 800 € (≈81 655 $), ether around 2 160 € (≈2 421,60 $) and Solana at about 93 € (≈104,27 $). These levels mark a phase of relative stabilization, in a context of still significant volatility among the sector’s largest capitalizations.

Historical data indicate that bitcoin was quoted at about 72 300 € (≈81 218 $) on 15 October 2026, roughly 34.9 % below its all-time closing high of approximately 111 100 € (≈124 728 $) reached on 6 October 2025. This distance from the peak reminds that, despite the rebound observed since earlier lows, the market remains in the process of digesting an exceptional bull cycle, with valuation adjustments still ongoing across major cryptocurrencies.

A document published in the Federal Register on 6 October 2026 traces the market’s trajectory: the global market capitalization of crypto-assets rose from about 3,8 Md € (≈4,3 Md $) in January 2015 to nearly 3 565 Md € (≈4 000 Md $) in September 2025, before falling to 2 228 Md € (≈2 500 Md $) in March 2026. This decline illustrates the partial disengagement of investors after the 2025 peak, in a more uncertain and more regulated macroeconomic environment.

The same analysis emphasizes that in March 2026 the ten largest crypto-assets represented about 89 % of total market capitalization, while 24-hour trading volume reached nearly 91,9 Md € (≈103,1 Md $). This high concentration means that movements in a few major tokens, notably bitcoin and ether, continue to largely dictate market sentiment. For European and international players alike, bitcoin’s current level around 72 600 € thus remains a central indicator of the overall risk profile of digital assets.

Regulation

MiCA: USDC becomes the first stablecoin classified as a "significant e-money token" in the European Union

On 14 October 2026, the European Banking Authority (EBA) designated USDC, issued in the EU by Circle Internet Financial Europe SAS, as the first "significant e-money token" under the MiCA regulation. This decision paves the way for enhanced supervision of stablecoins deemed systemic for the European market.

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Technology

Solana Prepares Alpenglow, an Upgrade to 150 ms Finality

The Solana network aims to activate the Alpenglow upgrade on mainnet during epoch 1064, expected on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 around 15:00 UTC. With an announced finality of about 150 milliseconds, the protocol seeks to position itself as an infrastructure for payments, DeFi and high-frequency gaming.

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Macro

At the end of October, the Fed–ECB double sequence in the crypto markets' sights

Two weeks before a rare convergence between interest-rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, crypto traders are scrutinizing the potential impact on the dollar, the euro and the volatility of digital assets. The uncertainty around the timing of future rate hikes revives scenarios of sharp moves for bitcoin and ether.

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Regulation

MiCA, DAC8, supervision: the European regulatory noose tightens around platforms and stablecoins

Between fixing MiCA’s loopholes, implementing DAC8 and strengthening oversight of stablecoins, Brussels is rapidly redrawing the operating framework for crypto players. Business models based on a single passport, tax opacity and a lack of environmental reporting are coming under pressure.

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Security

Stablecoins, banks and centralized platforms: the new hotspots of systemic risk under scrutiny

Between the surge and subsequent retreat of crypto-assets, concentration of volumes and banking vulnerabilities, the latest U.S. reports paint a clearer picture of the systemic risks linked to stablecoins. Regulators are now refining their requirements for issuers and for banks exposed to the sector.

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Coming up

  • October 21, 2026 – Scheduled activation of the “Alpenglow” upgrade on Solana mainnet (epoch 1064), targeting a finality of around 150 milliseconds and the replacement of TowerBFT.
  • October 21, 2026 – Busy day for token unlocks, with about 65,6 M€ (73,6 M USD) of value released across several projects according to Alpha Finance’s schedule.
  • October 21, 2026 – Next unlock of the COPX token, with 4 166 667 COPX additional (0,4 % of total supply) entering circulation per Tokenomics.com.
  • October 27–28, 2026 – Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting, with a rate decision expected on October 28.
  • October 29, 2026 – European Central Bank monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, rate decision and press conference the same day.