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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 8, 2026 edition

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Crypto under pressure: between deleveraging, Fed minutes and regulatory tightening

Abstract illustration showing sharp falling price lines spreading across a dark grid, with fluid shapes evoking a wave of liquidations simultaneously affecting crypto and traditional markets.

Bitcoin

€73,748

-1.7% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,286

-1.81% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.121

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of October 7, 2026 marks a turning point of the week for crypto markets. In a context of recently raised US policy rates and anticipation around the Fed minutes, the market underwent marked deleveraging, with nearly 488 M€ (547 M$) of derivative positions liquidated in 24 hours. Bitcoin and ether fell by a few percent, a reminder that volatility remains closely linked to the monetary cycle and the level of leverage in the ecosystem. Beyond the short-term noise, two underlying dynamics continue to strengthen. On the regulatory side, the US SEC is progressing on a custody framework for crypto-assets by managers, while European authorities pursue their own prudential agenda. On the technology and security side, an Ethereum researcher’s alert on risks related to private key recovery illustrates that the cryptographic foundation itself is subject to renewed scrutiny. This edition offers readers a macro, regulatory and technical framework to read these developments, without presuming their directional impact on prices in the medium term.

Markets

Massive deleveraging on October 7: anatomy of a session under pressure

On October 7, 2026, nearly 488 M€ of crypto derivative positions were force-liquidated in under 24 hours, triggering a sharp decline in major digital assets against an already strained macro backdrop. This session illustrates the power of a liquidity shock when leverage turns against investors.

On October 7, 2026, crypto derivatives markets experienced a large-scale deleveraging episode, with about 488 M€ (547 M$) of forced liquidations recorded in less than 24 hours, according to a market summary dated the same day. This volume of liquidations, concentrated in a single session, acted as a bearish catalyst on major digital assets, notably bitcoin and ether, whose prices reacted quickly to the pressure on leveraged products.

Over the same period, bitcoin fell by roughly 3.5%, while ether surrendered nearly 5.6%. In their wake, the overall crypto market capitalization is estimated to have declined by about 6% during the day. These moves, although moderate by the sector's historical standards, underscore the persistent sensitivity of spot prices to derivatives dynamics, where forced reductions in exposure amplify cascade effects, especially when liquidity is shallower in certain segments.

The October 7 session did not occur in isolation: traditional markets also corrected. The S&P 500 dropped about 0.5% and gold slipped roughly 1.7% over the day, in an environment already weakened by a recent increase in the Fed's policy rate. With a range now between 3.75% and 4.00%, the cost of leverage rises for all investors, reducing risk appetite and making highly indebted structures more vulnerable, including in crypto.

As of October 8, 2026, at the time of writing, bitcoin trades around 73 748 € (82 672 $) and ether around 2 286 € (2 563 $). These levels serve as reference points to analyze the October 7 session: despite the short-term severity of the deleveraging, prices remain anchored in elevated zones compared with previous cycles. The episode nevertheless serves as a reminder that, in a context of monetary tightening, the combination of high leverage and imperfect liquidity can trigger rapid market adjustments in a matter of hours that are difficult to anticipate.

For European participants, the October 7 session resembles a large-scale stress test of the crypto market under stricter funding constraints. It highlights the importance of monitoring not only spot prices but also derivatives activity, leverage structure and macro-financial conditions. Without prejudging the future trajectory of prices, this type of event argues for increased attention to risk management mechanisms, margin calls and the resilience of market infrastructures in the face of liquidity shocks.

Macro

Fed minutes and ECB accounts: the signals the crypto market is tracking

The release of the FOMC minutes and the ECB account, ahead of new rate decisions at the end of October, refocuses the crypto market’s attention on the path of monetary policy and global liquidity conditions.

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Regulation

The U.S. government moves €92M of BTC and BNB to Coinbase Prime: a signal for the market?

On October 7, 2026, wallets linked to the U.S. government moved approximately €91,9M of bitcoin and BNB to Coinbase Prime. These flows from criminal seizures rekindle questions about possible crypto asset sales by authorities.

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Security

Bitget after the hack of more than 314 M€: timeline of a crisis and lessons for CEXs

On September 24, 2026, Bitget confirmed a major hack of its hot wallets, with more than 313,8 M€ of assets stolen, later revalued at 345,6 M€. The episode brings back into focus the risks inherent to centralized platforms and the crucial role of user protection funds.

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Regulation

Crypto-custody: the SEC proposes a new framework for US advisers and funds

On October 1, 2026, the SEC presented a proposed set of rules governing the custody of crypto-assets by registered investment advisers and regulated funds in the United States. The text aims to adapt the existing custody framework to these digital assets by strengthening the requirements imposed on qualified custodians.

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Security

Ethereum in "bunker mode": Justin Drake's warning on private key recovery

On October 7, 2026, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake called on the community to enter a "bunker mode" of preparedness in the face of potential new techniques for recovering private keys. His message is aimed directly at the ECDSA signature schemes used by major blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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Coming up

  • October 8, 2026 – Publication of the ECB’s September monetary policy meeting summary (ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Summary), an event followed by rate markets and, indirectly, by the European crypto market.
  • October 8, 2026 – United States: weekly jobless claims and other macro indicators, key elements to refine expectations of the Fed’s rate path in a context where the crypto market is sensitive to the cost of capital.
  • October 8, 2026 – Unlock of the STABLE token, listed in several unlock schedules, with a token release that could increase circulating supply and affect the project’s liquidity.
  • October 10, 2026 – Unlock of 5.85% of the CARV token supply, recorded on on-chain schedules, an event that will focus attention on the behavior of early investors and the team.
  • October 15, 2026 – Starknet (STRK): unlocking of around 127 M STRK, or nearly 1.71% of the supply, a volume estimated at around 5,5 M€ (6,17 M$) that could weigh on the token’s market structure.
  • October 25, 2026 – Arbitrum (ARB): major token release planned by the Arbitrum Foundation, identified as one of the month’s largest unlocks in several specialized calendars.