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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 16, 2026 edition

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Asian ETFs, digital yuan and a flood of unlocks: an end to October under close watch

Abstract map of Asia stylized with interconnected glowing points symbolizing regulated crypto markets, on which minimalist symbols of Bitcoin and Ethereum are integrated into the network.

Bitcoin

€73,207

+1.23% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,180

+3.42% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1241

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of October 16, 2026 opens on a market split between silent records and well-identified liquidity risks. Bitcoin trades around 73 207 € (82 292 $) and Ether near 2 180 € (2 450 $), levels that reflect more the institutional anchoring of these assets than mere speculative frenzy. At the same time, several signals advise caution. In Asia, Thailand is implementing a framework for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs listed on the national exchange, while Beijing is preparing a new step in the industrialization of the digital yuan through smart contract functions. These regulatory and technological projects strengthen the role of crypto-assets and CBDCs in the global financial architecture. Meanwhile, unlock schedules remain busy in October, with several projects likely to see a significant portion of their supply released within a few days. For investors as well as regulators, the issue is no longer just valuation, but the detailed understanding of supply dynamics, concentration risks and governance mechanisms. This edition offers a factual overview of these catalysts, without yielding to either catastrophism or euphoria.

Regulation

Thailand: Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Mark a Regulatory Turning Point in Asia

From October 16, 2026, Thailand’s main exchange will host spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, overseen by the Thai SEC. A symbolic step toward the normalization of crypto-assets in Asia, with concrete implications for European investors exposed to the region.

On October 15, 2026, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finalized the regulatory framework allowing the listing of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The effective date is announced as October 16, 2026 on the country’s main exchange. These products are designed to replicate the spot price of Bitcoin, around 73 207 €, and Ether, near 2 180 €, without resorting to futures contracts. The decision confirms Bangkok’s chosen approach: to frame crypto exposures within an exchange-traded format under supervision rather than keep them outside the regulated perimeter.

The new ETFs will be subject to a supervision regime equivalent to other listed products in Thailand. The filing mentions “strict custody and transparency” requirements, which implies strengthened obligations on the safekeeping of crypto-assets and the disclosure of information to investors. For potential holders, the ETF structure does not eliminate market risks: it channels them into an environment more familiar to regulators, financial intermediaries and institutional investors already active in equity and bond markets.

This development fits into a global trend where several jurisdictions regulate crypto ETFs rather than ban them. The European debate around MiCA, currently being rolled out, moves towards a common framework for providers and issuers of digital assets. In North America, mechanisms for crypto-asset ETFs already exist. Thailand thus adds a major Asian exchange to this map, creating a regional precedent that could serve as a reference for other regulators in Southeast Asia and beyond.

For European investors with exposures or allocations in Asia, these ETFs provide a new regulated route to access Bitcoin and Ether via a supervised Thai market. Their real appeal will depend, however, on technical criteria: fee levels, liquidity depth, creation-redemption mechanisms and the ability to closely track the underlying index. These parameters will need to be assessed case by case, alongside the tax and currency considerations specific to each jurisdiction.

The introduction of these ETFs on October 16, 2026 guarantees neither performance nor protection against the volatility of the underlying crypto-assets. The price of Bitcoin, around 73 207 € (approximately 82 292 $), and that of Ether, near 2 180 € (around 2 450 $), remain largely dependent on global markets and international liquidity. The Thai ETFs will merely reflect this dynamic while placing it within a regulated framework. Investors remain exposed to potentially significant fluctuations, even within an exchange-listed vehicle.

Macro

Digital Yuan: Beijing Prepares to Regulate the Era of Monetary Smart Contracts

On the occasion of the Financial Street Forum 2026, the Chinese central bank is set to present a framework for smart contracts for the digital yuan, marking a new step in the industrialization of its central bank digital currency. A development closely watched in Europe, where the digital euro remains under study.

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Markets

An October under pressure: how to decode token unlock calendars

In October 2026, more than 1,100 token unlock events are expected, totaling around 8,33 M€. These calendars, increasingly consulted, mainly serve as alerts on supply risk, without constituting automatic trading signals.

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Markets

Solana: massive unlocks test the ecosystem's resilience in October 2026

In October 2026, several projects within the Solana ecosystem are executing significant token unlocks, concentrating liquidity risk into a short period. These events bring governance, financing and supply‑management models back to the forefront within the same network.

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Technology

VeChain "Renaissance": a major upgrade for industrial blockchain adoption

VeChain is preparing an upgrade presented as the most significant update to its mainnet as part of the "VeChain Renaissance" roadmap. Beyond the technical aspects, the focus is on concrete industrial use cases, particularly sustainability and traceability.

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Markets

SCR and other tokens: when an unlock weighs nearly half of market capitalization

On October 22, 2026, the SCR token is due to experience an unlock of about 12,46 M€, or nearly 43.6% of its estimated market capitalization, illustrating the supply-shock risks for mid-sized projects. Other tokens, such as TIA and RAIN, will see amounts released in October that amount to hundreds of millions, in a context where more than 2,67 Md€ of assets are scheduled to be unlocked that month.

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Coming up

  • October 16, 2026 – Entry into force of the Thai SEC rules for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the country’s main exchange, paving the way for a regulated offering of spot BTC and ETH products. Source: Thai SEC relayed by the crypto community (reddit.com)
  • October 19, 2026 – Opening of the annual Financial Street Forum in China, where the central bank is expected to present a smart contracts framework for the digital yuan. Source: exchange communication relaying the event program (reddit.com)
  • October 22, 2026 – Unlocking of around 12,46 M€ (14 M$) of the SCR token, i.e. more than 40% of its market capitalization according to a community unlock schedule. Source: unlock calendar published on Binance Square (binance.com)
  • October 2026 (throughout the month) – Series of major unlocks across several projects in the Solana ecosystem, including DoubleZero and other high‑market‑cap tokens, likely to significantly increase circulating supply. Source: analyses of multi‑platform unlock calendars (solanafloor.com)