Markets
Bitcoin: a massive options bet on €84,700 at the end of October, between macro narrative and seller pressure
An options structure of about 2,85 M€ betting on a bitcoin at €84,700 (95,000 $) at the end of October draws attention as the market remains driven by short-seller liquidations and a tighter macro environment.
On 14 October 2026, bitcoin was trading around €74,644 (83,743 $), after several sessions marked by forced liquidations of short sellers, according to observed derivatives flows. This short-covering context helped support prices, but it has been accompanied by a resurgence of speculation. Market data suggest that recent moves were strongly amplified by leverage and by the dynamics of derivative products rather than by a net inflow of funds into the spot market.
In this context, an options trade of the "butterfly" type worth about 2,85 M€ (3,2 M$) was identified, structured to maximize potential gains if bitcoin reaches around €84,700 (95,000 $) at the end-October 2026 expiry. Such a positioning, highly targeted at a price level extreme relative to the current spot, reinforces a speculative bullish narrative. This type of structure, however, remains sensitive to market trajectory and timing, and can quickly lose value if the underlying deviates from the implicit central scenario.
Market analyses point out that this bet comes as high US bond yields continue to weigh on risky assets. In an environment where the cost of capital is rising, the implied trajectory of the options — here a bitcoin near €84,700 (95,000 $) within a few weeks — could prove difficult to realize. This tension between a restrictive macro environment and aggressive derivative positions creates a notable gap between some traders’ expectations and the prevailing macroeconomic signals.
Flows in perpetual contracts and futures also show a resurgence of buyer-side leverage since early October, increasing the market's sensitivity to any external shock. If macro conditions deteriorate or if the bet on €84,700 (95,000 $) is unwound prematurely, forced position adjustments could amplify end-of-month volatility. The concentration of risks around this expiry can thus weigh on spot market liquidity, in a context where microstructure remains largely influenced by derivatives.