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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 13, 2026 edition

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Volatility Under Watch: Markets, Regulators and Vulnerabilities Put to the Test

Abstract illustration showing red and green geometric shapes reminiscent of price candlesticks, fragmented on a dark background to evoke volatility and liquidations in leveraged crypto markets.

Bitcoin

€74,619

-0.83% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,251

-1.95% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1184

In this edition · 6

Editorial

On the eve of the release of September U.S. inflation, the crypto sphere approaches October 13, 2026 in a climate of caution. Bitcoin has erased part of its recent gains, falling back below 73 000 € (approximately 81 000 $) in yesterday’s session, while ether trades around 2 250 €. The correction remains contained but is accompanied by a spike in liquidations on derivatives, a sign of strong leverage ahead of Wednesday’s key macro indicator. Outflows from spot ETFs remind us that institutional appetite is not linear. In parallel, the regulatory front is accelerating: the U.S. derivatives regulator is refining its framework for crypto markets, while other authorities are adjusting their plans regarding non-custodial wallets and tokenization. On the security front, several major cases — from hardware wallets to a centralized exchange — confirm that operational risk remains high, even for established players. Finally, the technical calendar is intensifying with November 4 targeted for Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade. The coming days will be decisive for risk perception, both in terms of prices and infrastructure and regulation.

Markets

Leveraged markets: bitcoin corrects below 73 000 € amid a peak in liquidations

On October 12, 2026, bitcoin briefly fell below 72 800 €, while crypto derivatives liquidations reached nearly 689 M€. In a context of marked outflows from spot ETFs, the market appears more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, starting with the US CPI expected this week.

On October 12, 2026, bitcoin declined by about 2.8% over 24 hours, to around 72 800 € (81 382 $), slipping back below the $82,000 threshold intraday, according to The Block. Ether corrected more sharply, falling to around 2 170 € (2 425 $), a drop of about 4.6% over 24 hours. These moves come as the market emerges from several weeks of consolidation, with bitcoin around 74 619 € (83 454 $) as a recent price reference.

This correction was accompanied by a peak in liquidations on crypto derivatives markets. Over 24 hours to October 12, total liquidations reached nearly 689 M€ (771 M$), of which about 613 M€ (685.6 M$) were long positions, according to The Block. This imbalance suggests significant use of leverage on the buy side, making prices more sensitive to sudden moves and accelerating forced selling when margin thresholds are hit.

At the same time, flows into US spot bitcoin ETFs turned negative. The Block reports about 609 M€ (681.1 M$) of net outflows over the previous week, their worst weekly performance since late June 2026. These withdrawals weigh on structural demand for bitcoin and can amplify the impact of selling pressure from derivatives markets, especially when investors simultaneously reduce their exposure to risky assets.

Despite this fragility, market liquidity shows signs of relative resilience. A daily briefing on October 12, 2026 noted that order book depth at ±1% for bitcoin was around 10.5 M€ (11.7 M$) on October 7, about 75% more than during the last stress episode, when BTC’s price was roughly one third lower. This combination of high leverage, ETF outflows and improved but still limited liquidity makes the market particularly sensitive to the next US inflation indicator (CPI), which could reignite volatility.

Regulation

United States: the CFTC opens a regulatory workstream dedicated to crypto-asset markets

The CFTC launches a structuring consultation on a "fit-for-purpose" framework for crypto-asset markets, while FinCEN withdraws two high-profile proposed rules. A refocusing of the U.S. regime for crypto platforms and services is taking shape.

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Security

Wallets and Exchanges Under Attack: More Than 550 M€ of Crypto Assets Stolen in a Few Days

Between hardware wallet hacks, a firmware flaw and the breach of a major exchange platform, more than 550 M€ of crypto assets were stolen in less than a week. These simultaneous incidents highlight the fragility of the entire chain, from self‑custody to centralized services.

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Technology

Glamsterdam: Ethereum sets its next major protocol upgrade for November 4, 2026

The Glamsterdam upgrade, expected on mainnet on November 4, 2026, is set to introduce an enshrined proposer‑builder separation (ePBS) and block‑level access lists (BALs). It aims to reshape how blocks are built and how data is accessed on Ethereum, with potential effects on validators, rollups and the application ecosystem.

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Macro

Tokenization and public policy: the IMF warns about illiquidity in tokenized markets

A warning from the IMF about liquidity and volatility in tokenized markets comes as authorities multiply prudential frameworks targeting stablecoins, trading platforms and institutional custodians. These signals could weigh on how banks and asset managers in Europe approach tokenization.

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Adoption

Real-world adoption: VeChain, Asian banks and bitcoin as collateral, signs of a more utility-driven market

Between a major VeChain upgrade, the use of bitcoin as collateral in South Korea and a sector rotation toward infrastructure, several signals from 12–13 October 2026 suggest a refocusing of crypto-assets on concrete use cases.

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Coming up

  • October 14, 2026 – Release of the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main macro catalyst of the week for risk assets, including bitcoin and ether.
  • October 17, 2026 – Unlocking of about 10.43% of the circulating supply of the DBR token, according to the DefiLlama schedule, an event likely to temporarily increase the token’s liquidity.
  • October 27, 2026 – Unlocking of about 4.61% of the circulating supply of the KNTQ token, again according to DefiLlama, with potential impact on float and selling pressure.
  • November 4, 2026 – Targeted activation of the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Ethereum mainnet, notably including enshrined proposer-builder separation (ePBS) and block-level allowlists.
  • Early November 2026 – Continued large token unlocks identified for Q4 2026 (including significant tranches on TON and other large caps), according to several unlock aggregators.