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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 17, 2026 edition

Latest available edition — today's is on its way.

Calm markets, regulators on alert, security put to the test

Abstract illustration showing two luminous curves representing the prices of bitcoin and ether moving almost flat, with thin bars suggesting low trading volumes on a gray-blue background symbolizing a hesitant market.

Bitcoin

€72,527

-0.97% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,159

-1.07% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1253

In this edition · 6

Editorial

This Saturday, October 17, 2026 opens on surprisingly calm crypto markets while the macroeconomic backdrop remains heavy. Bitcoin trades around 72 000 € and Ether near 2 150 €, slightly down over 24 hours, while flows into spot ETFs remain modest and sometimes negative, a sign of measured risk appetite despite the rebound of recent months. In the background, the IMF and World Bank autumn meetings in Bangkok, as well as the upcoming FOMC on October 27–28, remind that monetary policy decisions remain decisive for overall liquidity, including for digital assets. In Europe, ESMA clarifies its expectations regarding stablecoins not compliant with MiCA, further tightening the regulatory noose around certain business models. Finally, security news reminds us that no layer of the value chain is entirely safe: a supply-chain attack on Ledger hardware wallets led to the theft of about 83 to 91 M€ of assets. This edition highlights these weak but structural signals, rather than short-term volatility.

Markets

Bitcoin and ether move in different directions on a weightless crypto market

Bitcoin holds around 72 500 € while ether remains under pressure, in a context of declining volumes and very measured flows into spot ETFs. An environment that increases the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and regulatory shocks.

As of 17 October 2026, bitcoin is fluctuating around 72 527 € (81 615 $), slightly down by about 0.1% on the day according to intraday aggregated data from StatMuse. This level is slightly below the October average, near 74 500 € (84 000 $), which reflects more of a breathing phase than a trend reversal. The moderate gap illustrates a market without a clear direction, in which investors seem to favor waiting rather than taking decisive positions.

Ether follows a more fragile trajectory. It is trading on 17 October around 2 150 € (2 418 $), according to the latest readings from Investing.com and MarketScreener, down about 0.1% over 24 hours. Above all, ETH has relinquished nearly 18% since the start of the year, which contrasts with bitcoin’s relative resilience. This lag feeds the idea of a cautious rotation toward assets perceived as more "established" within the crypto ecosystem, without yet triggering massive forced selling.

On the listed products side, US spot bitcoin ETFs confirm the lack of conviction. On 15 October, net flows were barely positive, around 4,5 M€ (5,1 M$). BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone attracted roughly 14,9 M€ (16,8 M$) of inflows, while one of the main products simultaneously recorded some 6,8 M€ (7,6 M$) of outflows. The dispersion of these flows points to an internal rebalancing more than to a renewed appetite for institutional exposure to bitcoin.

On 16 October, all 12 US spot bitcoin ETFs showed net outflows of about 9,4 M€ (10,6 M$), confirming very measured institutional interest. Several market summaries published on 17 October reported a broad but contained decline across major cryptocurrencies, with futures volumes down around 20% over 24 hours and open interest slightly higher. This pattern corresponds more to a phase of technical consolidation than to a capitulation episode, but it increases the market’s vulnerability to any major macro shock or regulatory turning point.

Regulation

Non-compliant stablecoins: ESMA tightens the noose around European providers

On 8 October 2026, ESMA published an opinion clarifying its supervisory expectations for services related to stablecoins not authorised under MiCA. Platforms and issuers operating in the EU must now document and adapt their activities to limit exposure to non-compliant ART and EMT.

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Technology

Ethereum Prepares for Post-Glamsterdam: Testnet Validated, Mainnet in Sight

The Glamsterdam upgrade was scheduled on the Sepolia testnet for 6 October 2026, a first step toward a new phase of scalability for Ethereum. In its wake, Hoodi then Hegotá could reshape capacity, fees and the ecosystem’s appeal, with potential effects on L2s and validators.

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Macro

Macro under strain: IMF, debt and the Fed's upcoming decision under the crypto markets' gaze

In Bangkok, the IMF autumn meetings rekindle the debate on public debt sustainability as the Federal Reserve prepares for a key decision on October 27–28. In the background, the liquidity conditions that feed risky asset markets, crypto included, remain fragile.

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Markets

Cronos (CRO) set to unlock 1,17 billion tokens: a test for its tokenomics

On 17 October 2026, about 1,17 billion CRO from the strategic reserve will be unlocked, representing nearly 2,3 % of the circulating supply, for an estimated value between 61,7 M€ and 63,0 M€ (69,5 M$ to 70,9 M$). This monthly influx of tokens, combined with new burn mechanisms, deeply reshapes Cronos’s supply trajectory.

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Security

Supply-chain attack at Ledger: tampered hardware wallets siphon over 90 M€

An investigation published in mid-October 2026 reveals that Ledger hardware wallets sold via third-party reseller Cryptobilis were equipped with hidden eSIM/LTE modules, allowing the exfiltration of recovery phrases. The thefts linked to this “Cryptobilis incident” are estimated between about 82,6 M€ and 90,6 M€ according to initial analyses.

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Coming up

  • October 17, 2026 – Start of the Federal Reserve blackout period ahead of the FOMC on October 27–28, 2026, limiting public communications by Fed officials on monetary policy (official FOMC schedule).
  • October 17, 2026 – Unlocking of about 1.17 billion CRO for Cronos’ strategic reserve, or roughly 2.3% of circulating supply and an estimated value between 61,7 M€ and 63,0 M€ (69,5–70,9 M$) at current price.
  • October 18, 2026 – Next vesting deadline for the OFFICIAL TRUMP token (TRUMP) with the scheduled release of 28 695 652 tokens, as part of a one billion token schedule spanning January 2025 to December 2027.
  • October 18, 2026 – Several medium-sized token unlocks (for example SOLV, W, DBR) are listed on specialized calendars, for a cumulative amount of several million euros, likely to create liquidity jolts for some altcoins.
  • October 25, 2026 – Major scheduled unlock of the XPL token (Image Plasma), about 18,9 M$ or nearly 16,8 M€, representing just over 5% of its capitalization according to major vesting calendar aggregators.
  • October 27–28, 2026 – FOMC monetary policy meeting (U.S. Federal Reserve), with a rate decision and press conference, a major anchor for the end-2026 rate outlook.