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Prophetia · Today's letter

September 23, 2026 edition

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Crypto: Markets Tense, European Regulation on a Countdown

Abstract illustration showing a multi-layered chart where a colored band representing the NFT sector rises more sharply than the other curves symbolizing the rest of the crypto market.

Bitcoin

€76,063

+1.71% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,424

+1.49% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1429

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The edition of 23 September 2026 opens on a crypto market that continues to advance without spectacular overheating. The global market capitalization now stands at around 2,65 billions € (3,03 billions $), driven by a bitcoin around 75 800 € (≈86 600 $) and an ether that remains firmly anchored in the 2 400 € area. Behind these figures, however, a configuration more fragile than it appears takes shape. Nearly 15,9 milliards € of BTC and ETH options expire at the end of the week, which can increase short-term volatility. At the same time, the NFT sector shows a marked rebound, illustrating the highly segmented nature of the recovery. For European players, the regulatory agenda is just as structuring. The European Commission’s targeted consultation on the MiCA revision enters its final week, while the ECB and the Fed follow up with monetary policy meetings. Finally, the ecosystem remains exposed to operational risks, as reminded by a new rug pull on an emerging chain. Our selection of topics therefore favors verifiable facts: quantified market movements, dated regulatory deadlines and documented security incidents, without extrapolation or promise of gain.

Markets

Crypto market: market capitalization climbs to 2,65 billions € while NFTs lead the rally

On 23 September 2026, the crypto market is worth about 2,65 billions € after three sessions of gains, driven by a marked rebound in NFTs. Behind an ever-dominant bitcoin, the rise in sector indices suggests a renewed appetite for the most speculative risk.

On 23 September 2026, the total crypto market capitalization is estimated at about 2,65 billions €, equivalent to 3,03 billions $ at an exchange rate of 1 € to 1,1429 $. According to aggregated data from CoinGabbar, this valuation reflects an increase of about 0,5 % over 24 hours and is part of a three-day consecutive upswing reported by KuCoin. This overall trend rests on several sector indices, suggesting a gradual return of risk appetite while remaining dependent on large-cap assets.

On the same day, bitcoin trades around 75 800 € (≈86 600 $), up slightly by about 0,4 % over 24 hours, according to aggregated price data cited by CoinCoverage. BTC dominance remains close to the 50–60 % range of total market capitalization, which still makes it the market’s pivot asset. This structural weight implies that bitcoin’s movements continue to dictate overall volatility, even when some more specialized segments record stronger performances.

This is precisely the case for the NFT sector, particularly in focus on 23 September 2026. According to a KuCoin flash, an NFT sector index rises by about 8,85 % over 24 hours, while the ssiNFT index gains 9,59 %. These increases significantly exceed the performance of the overall market index and contrast with BTC’s more moderate advance. They reflect a renewed interest in assets perceived as more speculative, after a long period of consolidation and relative disaffection for digital collections.

At the same time, other segments also register notable gains, but less pronounced than those of NFTs. Also according to KuCoin, the ssiPayFi index increases by 5,38 % and the ssiLayer2 index by 4,22 % over 24 hours on 23 September 2026. These figures indicate a relatively broad but differentiated market movement, where payment solutions and layer-two infrastructures benefit from buying flows without matching the NFT dynamic. This performance hierarchy reminds us that the search for yield often shifts first to the riskiest segments.

For observers, this targeted NFT rally, within a broadly bullish market, may signal a beginning of reopening to extreme risk after a more cautious phase. The presence of ETH around 2 424 € (2 770 $) according to price markers, combined with BTC’s robustness and the rise in sector indices, paints a more favorable environment for digital assets. However, this setup remains fragile: the concentration of capitalization around bitcoin and the historical volatility of NFTs call for a measured reading of these signals.

Markets

Massive BTC and ETH options expiry on Friday: nearly 15,9 milliards € reach maturity

Around 15,9 milliards € (18,1 milliards $) of bitcoin and ether options expire this Friday, September 25, 2026, concentrating repositioning risk toward the end of the week. Traders are closely watching the bitcoin price level around 75 300 € (86 000 $) as the expiry approaches.

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Regulation

MiCA: the European Commission's targeted consultation enters its final week

Open until 30 September 2026, the targeted consultation on the revision of the MiCA regulation is intended to inform the report the European Commission is preparing under Articles 140 and 142, potentially leading to a legislative amendment proposal. Crypto‑asset service providers and issuers operating in Europe are directly affected by any subsequent adjustments.

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Technology

Ethereum: the Sepolia testnet prepares for the "Glamsterdam" upgrade after a postponement to October 6

Ethereum developers postponed the activation of "Glamsterdam" on Sepolia from September 28 to October 6, 2026 in order to extend the testing phase. This upgrade could have effects on network performance, fees and the DeFi ecosystem, in a context of increased scrutiny around L2 solutions.

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Security

Rug pull on Robinhood Chain: the DEED token collapses by 98.7%

Approximately 612 700 € (700 000 $) evaporated on September 23, 2026 during a rug pull on the DEED token, deployed on Robinhood Chain. The case highlights the persistence of fraud risks on marginal assets, even when they circulate on infrastructures associated with mainstream actors.

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Adoption

UniHexa pushes fully on-chain bitcoin settlement for institutional players

UniHexa unveils a fully on-chain bitcoin settlement service based on transaction verifiability and a “bulk matching” mechanism aimed at institutional needs. The initiative comes as bitcoin trades around 75 000–76 000 € and its market capitalization exceeds 2 billions €, reigniting the debate on its use as a payment infrastructure.

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Coming up

  • 25 September 2026: expiration of BTC and ETH options with a total notional of about 15,9 milliards € (18,1 milliards $), likely to increase short-term volatility.
  • 30 September 2026, 23:59 CEST: closing of the European Commission’s targeted consultation on the MiCA regulation revision (DG FISMA).
  • 6 October 2026: scheduled activation of the “Glamsterdam” update on the Ethereum Sepolia testnet, after a postponement announced in early September.
  • 6 October 2026: monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council (day 2, with press conference), likely to influence risk appetite in the euro area.
  • 7 October 2026: scheduled release of the FOMC minutes for the 15‑16 September 2026 meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • 31 December 2026: announced deadline for users to withdraw their funds from the Ethereum L2 solution Silicon before its permanent shutdown.