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Prophetia · Today's letter

September 24, 2026 edition

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Crypto between macro pressure and tightening regulation

Abstract illustration showing a falling price curve crossing a sharply rising bond yield curve, on a background of dark and orange colors evoking the tension between crypto markets and interest rates.

Bitcoin

€74,051

-3.02% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,368

-2.72% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1386

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of 24 September 2026 opens on a crypto market once again caught up by traditional macroeconomics. While bitcoin trades around 74 000 €, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have returned to levels unseen for nearly twenty years, a reminder that digital assets are not isolated from the cost of money. The correction of more than 2% observed overnight illustrates this increased sensitivity to rising rates. In Europe, the debate shifts from the economic cycle to market structure. The European Central Bank and national central banks are using the MiCA review to call for stricter limits on yields from stablecoins and a revision of reserve requirements, continuing recent appeals to broaden the ban on remuneration. Infrastructures, meanwhile, continue to evolve rapidly: Solana is testing a drastic reduction of its finality times, while Ethereum’s roadmap is becoming clearer with the Glamsterdam upgrade. This edition will set these three dynamics — macro, regulation, technology — against each other while keeping a common thread: carefully assessing what these movements mean for liquidity, platform business models, and the resilience of the ecosystem.

Markets

Crypto under pressure: bitcoin falls back below 74 000 € as US yields reach a high not seen since 2007

On 24 September 2026, bitcoin fell to around 73 700 €, while the 10‑year US yield rose to 5.11 %, its highest level since 2007. This combination of higher rates and a rebound in oil is increasing pressure on risky assets, with crypto at the forefront.

On the Asian morning of 24 September 2026, bitcoin dropped more than 2 % to trade around 73 700 € (approximately 83 900 $), according to aggregated data from CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency had just peaked near 76 700 € (87 300 $) the day before, before breaking the symbolic threshold equivalent to 73 780 € (84 000 $). Price histories show a close near 74 220 € (84 500 $) on 23 September, underscoring the speed of the corrective move in an asset class already known for its volatility.

This correction comes as global financial conditions tighten significantly. The 10‑year US closed on 23 September 2026 at 5.11 %, up 15 basis points on the session. This level, the highest since 2007, increases the appeal of risk-free securities at the expense of non‑yielding assets, of which bitcoin remains the emblematic example. The rise in yields reduces the acceptable risk premium for many institutional investors exposed to crypto assets.

At the same time, Brent crude rebounded more than 4 % to return close to 91.4 € (104 $) on 23 September, ending a six-session losing streak. This reversal in energy revives fears of more persistent inflation, noted in market commentary. Higher oil prices complicate central banks’ tasks and feed the hypothesis of persistently high policy rates, a scenario generally unfavorable to speculative, long-duration assets such as most crypto tokens.

Despite the short-term decline, the crypto market remains at historically high valuation levels. As of 24 September 2026, widely cited price benchmarks place bitcoin around 74 051 € (84 315 $) and ether near 2 368 € (2 696 $). These levels reflect continued strong interest, but in an environment of tighter liquidity. For investors, the session is a reminder that the path of US rates and inflation expectations now directly weigh on volatility, order book depth and the market’s ability to absorb shocks in the crypto market.

Regulation

The ECB wants to extend the ban on yield on stablecoins to lending and staking

In its response to the MiCA review published at the end of September 2026, the Eurosystem proposes to prohibit any yield, even indirect, on stablecoins via lending, borrowing or staking. A hard line that could force European platforms to deeply rethink their business models centered on these tokens.

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Regulation

MiCA Review: EU Opens Targeted Consultation That Could Reopen Crypto Rulemaking

On 20 May 2026 the European Commission launched a targeted consultation on the review of the MiCA regulation, with a deadline set for 30 September 2026. This step could lead, if necessary, to a new legislative proposal adjusting the first unified European framework for crypto-assets.

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Technology

Solana tests Alpenglow aiming for 150 ms finality on its network

Solana activated its Alpenglow upgrade on a public testnet on September 23, 2026, with the goal of reducing finality time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. This change could reposition the network for on-chain payments and exchange integrations, while raising new security questions.

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Technology

Ethereum Glamsterdam: smart contract size at the heart of a tightened testing schedule

The Glamsterdam upgrade is set to raise the maximum size of smart contracts on Ethereum, but its arrival on Sepolia has been postponed to October 6, 2026, a sign of more cautious technical governance. Developers are now awaiting feedback from testnets and audits before any firm mainnet date is set.

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Adoption

A stablecoin infrastructure settles more than 130 billion € per week: towards a new back-end for payments

A blockchain infrastructure described by CoinDesk settles approximately 131,8 milliards € (150 milliards $) of stablecoins each week, bringing crypto rails closer to the volumes of established payment systems. This scale-up comes as the ECB and European regulators question the impact of stablecoins and accelerate their work on tokenized central bank money.

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Coming up

  • 25 September 2026: Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit of approximately 12,3 milliards € (14 milliards $), described as a quarterly "options book" settlement heavily skewed toward calls around 85 000 $ in recent market analyses.
  • 28 September 2026 (tentative): activation on Solana mainnet of the features of version Agave 4.3, including the building blocks necessary for the Alpenglow upgrade, subject to the stability of ongoing tests on the public testnet.
  • 30 September 2026, 23h59 (CEST): deadline for the European Commission’s targeted consultation on the MiCA review, opened on 20 May 2026 and aiming to assess whether the framework remains fit after its first months of application.
  • 6 October 2026: scheduled activation of the Glamsterdam upgrade on Ethereum’s Sepolia test network, postponed since 28 September to allow an additional week of testing for client teams.
  • By the end of 2026: indicative timetable of European central banks to finalize their recommendations on the prudential treatment of stablecoin reserves, in connection with the MiCA review and ongoing public consultations.