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Prophetia · Today's letter

September 27, 2026 edition

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American clarifications, performance tests and security incidents: the crypto market remains under scrutiny

Abstract illustration showing a price curve rising sharply then stabilizing on a dark grid background with faint candlesticks, to depict a strong quarter for bitcoin followed by a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin

€74,041

+0.4% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,364

+0.09% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1389

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session on Saturday, September 26, 2026 ends with a crypto market still supported by a strong third quarter, but marked by caution. Bitcoin is trading around 74 000 € after a quarter in which it gained more than 40%, while Ethereum shows an even stronger performance over the same period. This rebound comes as authorities are stepping up their vigilance. In the United States, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance published on September 25 a new series of questions and answers on crypto assets, clarifying how existing rules apply to staking tokens, wrapped assets and buyback programs. These clarifications are not legally binding, but they reduce some of the uncertainty for issuers and platforms. On the technological front, Solana is continuing its tests of an upgrade targeting settlements in 150 milliseconds, illustrating the race for performance. At the same time, a hack of about 6,15 M€ of a crypto casino serves as a reminder of the persistence of operational and security risks. In this context, the coming day promises to be busy for disentangling real progress from market exuberance.

Markets

Bitcoin posts one of its best third quarters, but momentum eases at week’s end

With a gain of about 43.5% in the third quarter of 2026, Bitcoin logged its second-best historical Q3, while showing signs of consolidation at the end of the week. Ethereum’s stronger advance and an ever-uncertain macro backdrop rekindle questions about the durability of the move.

As of September 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM (Eastern Time), bitcoin was trading around 73 912 € (84 162 $), slightly down by about 0.5% over 24 hours. A market recap from the same day notes a nearby price, around 73 666 € (83 887 $), with an estimated daily volume of 22.2 billion € (25.3 billion $). These figures confirm a consolidation phase after a marked rebound, with limited daily variations.

According to an analysis published on September 26, 2026, bitcoin would have gained about 43.5% in the third quarter of 2026, which would constitute its second-best third quarter on record. The price is nevertheless reported to be about 33% below its all-time high, a reminder that the recovery remains incomplete. This contrast between robust quarterly performance and persistent distance from the record high fuels a cautious debate about the strength of the current cycle.

Over the same period, Ethereum reportedly saw an advance of about 71% in the third quarter of 2026, a stronger rebound than Bitcoin’s. At the time of writing, a market reference places ether around 2 364 € (2 692 $), compared with about 74 041 € (84 325 $) for bitcoin. This gap in quarterly performance suggests a stronger appetite for risk in some major altcoins, while leaving Bitcoin in its role as the benchmark asset.

This market configuration comes amid a still uncertain macroeconomic environment, where inflation, monetary policies and overall liquidity remain determining factors for digital assets. Bitcoin’s sharp rise in the third quarter of 2026, followed by a cooling at month-end, may reflect a need for technical breathing room as much as increased investor caution. The next developments will depend largely on the evolution of macro conditions and the market’s ability to absorb this consolidation phase without a major correction.

Regulation

The SEC sharpens its reading of crypto assets: what the new FAQs on staking, buybacks and "functional" networks change

The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance published on September 25, 2026 a series of FAQs on the application of U.S. securities law to certain crypto assets and transactions. Without direct regulatory force, these guidances clarify the regulator’s position on “functional” networks, staking tokens, buybacks and wrapped assets.

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Technology

Solana pushes its settlement toward 150 milliseconds on a second public testnet

Solana is experimenting with an update targeting roughly 150 ms settlement on a second public testnet, according to CoinDesk on September 26, 2026. A development that strengthens its positioning for high-frequency use cases, while reigniting debates about decentralization and infrastructure constraints.

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Security

Piracy at Duelbits: up to 6,15 M€ stolen in a multi‑chain hot wallet attack

On 24 September 2026, crypto casino Duelbits had its hot wallets compromised across several blockchains, with estimated losses between 4,30 M€ and 6,15 M€. The incident revives concerns about hot wallet security and counterparty risks facing users of centralized platforms.

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Security

Up to 12 years in prison for a phishing targeting Coinbase customers amounting to 14,1 M€

A Brooklyn resident was sentenced to four to twelve years in prison for a phishing operation targeting Coinbase users, having diverted nearly 14,1 M€ (16 M$) in crypto assets over the course of a year. The case illustrates the rise of social engineering scams in crypto and the tougher judicial responses.

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Macro

Crypto volatility and technological dependencies: European supervisors take a tougher stance

In their Autumn 2026 update, the European supervisory authorities list the persistent volatility of crypto-assets and dependence on external technology providers among the main vulnerabilities of the financial system. This development could pave the way for new prudential requirements for players exposed to tokenized markets.

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Coming up

  • Week of September 28, 2026 – Initial reactions from U.S. stakeholders to the SEC FAQs on crypto published on September 25, 2026, with anticipation of possible adjustments to staking products and wrapped tokens.
  • Early October 2026 (indicative date around October 2, 2026) – New comments expected from U.S. trade associations on the SEC’s March 2026 Interpretive Release on crypto and its September 25 FAQs.
  • Early October 2026 – Continued public testing of Solana’s upgrade targeting a settlement time of around 150 ms; participants are awaiting a more precise roadmap for mainnet deployment.
  • October 2026 – Monitoring by European authorities of the operational implementation of Pontes, the central bank money settlement solution for tokenized assets launched by the ECB on September 21, 2026.
  • October 2026 – Expectation of possible follow-up communications from European authorities (ESMA, EBA, EIOPA) after their Autumn 2026 risk update, which mentions the volatility of crypto-assets as a vulnerability for the financial system.