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Prophetia · Today's letter

September 29, 2026 edition

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Market on hold, security on alert, Ethereum prepares its next leaps

Abstract illustration showing a golden Bitcoin symbol above an almost flat price curve, on a background of blue and orange hues evoking an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Bitcoin

€73,256

-0.22% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,348

+0.46% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1364

In this edition · 6

Editorial

The session of September 29, 2026 opens on a crypto market that is both euphoric and fragile. Bitcoin remains close to 73 000 € after a rally driven by strong flows into spot ETFs, but momentum is stalling ahead of key US employment data that could reshuffle monetary expectations. At the same time, Ethereum is already looking toward its next major upgrades, with a testnet fork scheduled for October 6 and a strategic cap set for the 2027 horizon. In the background, regulation and security remind us of their demands. The US SEC is refining its reading of digital assets, without closing legal uncertainty for global players. The Bitget attack, nearly 341 M€ stolen before a gradual resumption of withdrawals, and the emergency rescue of over 5 M€ in NFTs illustrate the persistence of operational risk. Finally, Europe is making progress on central bank digital currencies, between experimentation with a wholesale digital euro and preparation of a framework for retail. Today’s edition aims to help distinguish noise from durable signals in this dense environment.

Markets

Bitcoin Pauses Around 73 000 € Ahead of US Employment Figures

After a rally driven by spot ETFs, Bitcoin consolidates around 73 000 € on the eve of the release of the September Employment Situation report in the United States. Investors are watching these data that could influence rate expectations and, by extension, the liquidity available for risk assets.

On 28 September 2026, Bitcoin was trading around 73 256 € (≈ 83 249 $), up more than 4 % on the previous week, according to a market report dated the same day. The move follows several sessions of gains fueled by flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts cited said, however, that the rally is "taking a pause," with the cryptocurrency now trading in a consolidation zone around its recent highs in euros as well as dollars, in a context of heightened caution across global markets.

According to a daily briefing published on 28 September 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly 1,94 to 2,11 Mrd € (2,2 to 2,4 Mrd $) of net inflows over the past week. These amounts confirm institutional demand for the asset, despite the inherent volatility of the crypto market. Several market notes stress that these inflows support Bitcoin's price but remind readers that the ability of these products to absorb potential macroeconomic shocks will largely depend on the future stance of US monetary policy.

A market report dated 28 September 2026 indicates that traders are now turning their attention to the release of the September Employment Situation report, expected on 2 October 2026 at 8:30 (New York time). These US employment figures are a key indicator for the Federal Reserve and could influence rate expectations. A stronger‑than‑expected labor market could bolster expectations of tighter monetary conditions, with a potential impact on the liquidity available for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

In this context, Ethereum is showing a more tentative dynamic. On 28 September 2026, the asset was trading around 2 348 € (≈ 2 669 $), according to verified price markers, representing a less pronounced performance than Bitcoin's, despite a similar macroeconomic environment. Another briefing from 28 September 2026 also mentions a tense geopolitical climate, notably in the Middle East, but highlights Bitcoin's resilience, with its price remaining supported by ETF flows. Observers nevertheless stay cautious about the risk of a reversal in the event of a macro or geopolitical shock.

For European investors, the combination of a Bitcoin stabilized around 73 000 €, significant institutional flows via ETFs and the proximity of US employment figures paints a mixed picture. On one hand, demand through regulated products strengthens the asset's credibility among some traditional players. On the other, the increased dependence on macroeconomic data and the trajectory of US rates serves as a reminder that the current valuation remains closely correlated with global liquidity conditions and exposed to short‑term statistical surprises.

Regulation

Crypto-assets: the SEC sharpens, without securing, the boundaries of securities law

On September 25, 2026, the U.S. SEC updated its FAQ on the application of federal securities laws to digital assets, adding practical cases on token buybacks, network financing and staking. These clarifications make certain scenarios clearer, without constituting a true "safe harbor" for crypto actors, including non‑U.S. ones.

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Security

Bitget: after a theft estimated at 341 M€, a gradual resumption of withdrawals under enhanced control

Five days after detecting unauthorized withdrawals for approximately 341 M€, Bitget reopened Bitcoin withdrawals and is preparing a gradual restoration of other assets, under the supervision of cybersecurity firms. The incident, one of the largest suffered by a centralized platform in recent years, renews the debate about counterparty risk for users and professional partners.

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Security

Limit Break / Magic Eden Exploit: a 5 M€ NFT rescue that exposes the risk of forgotten on‑chain approvals

On 25 September 2026, more than 23 000 NFTs worth approximately 5,0 M€ were urgently moved by white hats via an old Limit Break payment contract used by Magic Eden, highlighting the fragility of on‑chain approvals left active. The incident renews the debate on risk management, as hundreds of WETH remained exposed.

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Technology

Glamsterdam and Hegotá: Ethereum locks its test schedule and prepares its "last normal fork"

Ethereum pins the Sepolia fork of Glamsterdam to October 6, 2026 and projects Hegotá for 2027, a step Vitalik Buterin presents as the last "normal" upgrade before more radical cryptographic changes.

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Adoption

Digital euro: the Eurosystem tests the wholesale version while the retail framework becomes clearer

The Eurosystem has launched a first large-scale experiment of a wholesale digital euro for settlements between banks, while the ECB is preparing the operational phase of a retail digital euro, subject to a political agreement expected in 2026. These choices will influence the growth of euro-denominated stablecoins and the role of private solutions in European digital payments.

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Coming up

  • October 2, 2026 – Release of the Employment Situation report (US nonfarm payrolls for September) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key indicator for rate expectations and therefore for crypto risk appetite. (08:30 ET).
  • October 6, 2026 – Sepolia fork for Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, a major public test step before the mainnet deployment scheduled for Q4 2026.
  • October 8, 2026 – Monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council, with a press conference on euro area key interest rates.
  • September 29, 2026 – Bitget reopens ETH withdrawals on multiple networks after BTC withdrawals resumed on September 28, as part of a phased post‑incident reactivation schedule.
  • September 30, 2026 – Bitget plans to resume USDT withdrawals on the Ethereum, BSC, Solana and Tron networks, the final step before reopening other assets on October 2.