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Prophetia · Today's letter

September 30, 2026 edition

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Markets on hold, protocols in motion: an end-of-quarter under watch

Abstract illustration depicting two luminous shapes evoking the main cryptocurrencies, above an almost horizontal price line on a grid and subtle candlesticks background, symbolizing a market in a consolidation phase near its highs.

Bitcoin

€73,459

+0.04% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,357

+0.12% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1337

In this edition · 6

Editorial

Lacklustre end of quarter on prices, but rich in signals for the months ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum are consolidating near their highs, while implied volatility is retreating and volumes are shifting towards index products and ETFs rather than pure spot. This lull occurs as central banks maintain a patient tone after the last FOMC on 16 September, and the next Fed meeting on 28 October looms as a fresh test for risk assets. On the technical front, the ecosystem keeps moving forward: Base is activating today its hard fork “Cobalt”, while Solana is refining on testnet an update aimed at near-instant finality. At the same time, the schedule of token unlocks for October exceeds 3 milliards d’euros, which could momentarily weigh on the liquidity of certain projects. Finally, on regulation, the EBA clarifies its priorities for the MiCA review, while academic research better documents recurring vulnerabilities in DeFi. These are the topics we entrust to the editorial team, with a single throughline: distinguishing structural trends from market noise.

Markets

Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate near their highs on the eve of the fourth quarter

On 29 September 2026, bitcoin was trading around 73 600 € (83 500 $) and ether near 2 380–2 390 €, in a crypto market slightly up but still in a consolidation phase. This stability, close to recent highs, ushers in the start of the fourth quarter under a sign of caution and tests of key technical levels.

On 29 September 2026, several market readings put bitcoin around 73 600 € (83 500 $), with daily moves under 1% and six consecutive closes within a ±1.1% range. A distinct market reading placed it near 73 400 € (83 176 $), a limited decline of 0.9% over 24 hours but still above the symbolic threshold of 73 200 € (83 000 $). These figures confirm a calm market, dominated by narrow moves close to recent highs.

Another reading reported bitcoin near 74 000 € (83 900 $) and ether around 2 390 € (2 708 $), confirming a consolidation of the broader crypto market near its peaks. At the same time, total crypto market capitalization is estimated at about 2,53 billions € (2,87 billions $), up roughly 1.1% over 24 hours on 29 September 2026. This divergence between bitcoin’s stability and the rise in overall capitalization suggests selective flows into other digital assets.

Analysts cited on 29 September 2026 identify a significant support zone for bitcoin around 70 600 € (80 000 $) and potential resistance above 79 400 € (90 000 $). The market would be "testing its previous range," in their words, after the establishment of a price plateau near 73 459 € (83 280 $), a benchmark level observed in recent days. Between these bounds, the dynamics remain uncertain, with reduced volatility that could precede either a bullish breakout or a deeper correction.

For Ethereum, readings around 2 365–2 390 € (2 680–2 708 $) also confirm a consolidation phase near recent highs, following bitcoin’s lead. This setup, combined with moderately rising market capitalization, puts the start of the fourth quarter in a wait-and-see mode. Institutional and retail investors alike may closely watch the hold of support at 70 600 € (80 000 $) and any attempt to break 79 400 € (90 000 $) to gauge the risk of a shift in the volatility regime.

Technology

Base activates the Cobalt hard fork: a new step for Coinbase’s infrastructure on Ethereum

On September 30, 2026, the Base Mainnet network is set to activate the Cobalt hard fork at 18:00 UTC, with a maintenance window announced until 20:00 UTC. This major upgrade formalizes an on-chain upgrades registry and illustrates the rise of rollups operated by large intermediaries in the Ethereum ecosystem.

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Technology

Solana tests 150 ms finality while SOL outperforms large caps

Solana is experimenting on testnet with an upgrade aiming for near-150-millisecond finality, while the SOL token posts the best monthly performance among large caps. A technical advance that rekindles the debate between speed, resilience and decentralization.

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Markets

October, month of unlocks: more than 2.65 billion euros of tokens gradually enter the market

The main vesting schedules listed for October 2026 exceed 2.65 billion €, with a series of unlocks spread over the month and a peak expected around the TIA token on October 30.

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Regulation

MiCA under strain: the EBA sets its priorities for revising the European framework

In a response published on 24 September 2026, the European Banking Authority outlines the red lines for the MiCA revision, stressing the definition of the scope of crypto-assets in relation to banking law and capital markets. The coming trade-offs could redraw the boundary between crypto, tokenized deposits and traditional finance in the EU.

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Security

After the wave of DeFi incidents, research refines the mapping of vulnerabilities

A series of academic analyses and specialized databases highlight the limits of current audits and the emergence of automated tools to map DeFi attack vectors. As locked values increase, a detailed understanding of exploitation paths becomes a central issue for protocols and regulators.

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Coming up

  • 2026-09-30 – Activation of the “Cobalt” hard fork on Base Mainnet at 18:00 UTC, with a maintenance window until 20:00 UTC.
  • 2026-10-01 – Unlock of the Eigen token (EIGEN), the first event in a very busy October for large-cap unlocks.
  • 2026-10-01 – SUI unlock estimated at about 159 M€ (≈ 180,4 M USD), representing up to ~2,4 % of the circulating supply.
  • 2026-10-05 – Major unlocks for ENA (~187 M€) and ASTER (~444 M€), representing approximately ~14,3 % and ~4 % of their circulating supplies, respectively.
  • 2026-10-28 – FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the next major step in the rate path closely watched by crypto markets.