Crypto market in slight lull, under the dual tests of MiCA and security

Bitcoin

€74,233

+0.92% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,391

+1.3% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.1327

In this edition · 6

Editorial

On this October 1, 2026, the crypto market begins the final quarter of the year in a mixed climate. On the price front, Bitcoin holds around 74 000 € and Ethereum near 2 400 €, supported by a slight improvement on the US inflation front and a measured appetite for risk. In Europe, the regulatory file returns to the forefront. ESMA and EBA have just published their priorities for the MiCA review, with an emphasis on clarity of definitions, the interaction with MiFID and PSD2/PSD3 and the supervision of stablecoin issuers. These signals suggest a more demanding but potentially more predictable framework for European players. At the same time, security remains the ecosystem’s Achilles’ heel. The investigation into the large-scale Bitget hack, recent work on the reproducibility of DeFi hacks by AI and data leaks at hardware wallet providers remind us that the line between innovation and risk remains thin. Finally, a wall of token unlocks in October could change liquidity conditions across several segments. Our edition today focuses on these main lines, without extrapolating beyond the available facts.

Markets

Bitcoin and Ethereum open the fourth quarter against a backdrop of moderate macro easing

On October 1, 2026, Bitcoin trades around 74 233 € and Ethereum near 2 391 €, in a global market of approximately 2 610 Md€ supported by a slight cooling of underlying U.S. inflation. This lull, still fragile, continues to shape liquidity and the risk profile of all digital assets.

On October 1, 2026, the average price of Bitcoin is estimated at around 73 700 €, based on an average daily price of about 83 486 $ converted at the rate of 1 € = 1,1327 $. Market reference points place Bitcoin close to 74 233 € (≈ 84 084 $) and Ethereum around 2 391 € (≈ 2 708 $), marking the start of the fourth quarter under the sign of relative stability. This limited gap between the daily average and the spot level suggests a market without abrupt movement during this macro-heavy season.

According to CryptoCompass, total crypto market capitalization reaches about 2 610 Md€ (≈ 2 960 Md$) on October 1, 2026, up roughly 0.2% over 24 hours. This moderate rise follows the late-September release of the U.S. Core PCE inflation indicator, described as slightly cooling. For many participants, this signal is seen as marginally supportive for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, by reducing anticipated pressure on financing conditions.

CryptoCompass explicitly links the recovery of the major tokens – notably Bitcoin around 74 233 € and Ethereum near 2 391 € – to the "fresher" Core PCE, which partially eases fears of further monetary tightening. In this context, liquidity demand is cautiously reorienting toward digital assets, without however signifying a durable regime change. Observed flows remain selective and concentrated on the largest market caps, perceived as relatively more liquid and less volatile than niche segments.

Index data cited by CryptoCompass nevertheless underline an ongoing high correlation between Bitcoin, Ethereum and other large caps. This configuration leaves little room for genuine intra-crypto diversification in the event of a global macro shock. In practice, a new negative surprise on inflation or rates could simultaneously affect the entire segment. For investors, the path of the U.S. Core PCE therefore remains a central indicator to assess aggregated risk levels in digital markets.

The opening of the fourth quarter 2026 thus illustrates a precarious balance: a slight macro easing that supports reference prices – Bitcoin around 74 233 € and Ethereum at 2 391 € – but does not dispel structural vulnerabilities. The 2 610 Md€ capitalization testifies to a still-present appetite for risk, but framed by strong internal correlations and a marked dependence on monetary policy signals. The absence of a clear break in price trends invites, for now, a cautious reading of market dynamics.

Sources

Regulation

MiCA under the magnifying glass: ESMA and EBA frame the upcoming European revision

As the first review of MiCA approaches, ESMA and the EBA publish their priorities: clarifying the scope of the regulation, further regulating ART and EMT, and integrating emerging crypto services. These guidelines will affect access to the European market for industry players in the coming years.

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Technology

Base activates its Cobalt upgrade, a new milestone for Ethereum L2 infrastructure

On 30 September 2026, Base activated the Cobalt upgrade on its mainnet, a hard fork focused on stability and observability. The operation highlights the increased maturity of technical governance for layer-2s and the key role of centralized platforms during network upgrades.

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Security

Bitget Hack: a zero-day and North Korean leads revive exchange security concerns

On 24 September 2026, Bitget suffered a theft estimated at 341,7 M€ (≈ 387 M$), one of the largest crypto incidents of the year. Early investigation findings point to exploitation of a zero-day flaw and technical indicators linking to North Korean actors.

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Security

DeFi and AI: increasingly reproducible exploits amid leaks of sensitive data

A new study by DefiLlama Research shows that a significant share of historical DeFi hacks could be replayed today by AI agents, while infrastructure incidents and user data leaks are multiplying. The sector faces an unprecedented combination of public code, automatable attack tools and compromised data.

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Markets

October 2026: more than €2.6B of token unlocks put liquidity to the test

With more than €2.65B of tokens released across L1s, L2s and DeFi protocols, October 2026 concentrates a series of events likely to weigh on supply dynamics. Investors are closely watching a few large unlocks that account for the bulk of the amounts.

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Coming up

1 October 2026 – Major unlock of the SUI token: about 159,3 M€ (≈ 180,4 M$) of tokens released, i.e. up to ~2,4 % of the circulating supply, an event likely to influence liquidity in the Sui ecosystem. Source: KuCoin / unlock calendar.
2 October 2026 – STO unlock (9,48 % of the supply) according to the DeFiLlama schedule, representing a significant increase in the float for this token. Source: DeFiLlama / Crypto Calendar.
10 October 2026 – CARV unlock (5,85 % of the supply) reported on the DeFiLlama schedule, potentially affecting price and liquidity dynamics for this gaming/data project. Source: DeFiLlama / Crypto Calendar.
20 October 2026 – Double unlock ZRO (~43,5 M€ i.e. ≈ 49,23 M$) and AXS (~63,4 M€ i.e. ≈ 71,8 M$), each representing more than 2 % of the relevant supply or market cap. Source: KuCoin / unlock calendar.
30 October 2026 – Very large unlocks TIA (~953,6 M€ i.e. ≈ 1,08 Md$ and 17,68 % of the total supply) and OP unlock (~31,2 M€ i.e. ≈ 35,3 M$ and ~3 % of the supply), identified as the heaviest token events of the month. Source: KuCoin / unlock calendar.