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Prophetia · Today's letter

October 2, 2026 edition

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Crypto: resilient markets, regulators under pressure, busy unlock calendars

Abstract illustration showing two rising price curves on a stylized grid, evoking the strength of the cryptocurrency market in a tighter monetary context, with no text or identifiable symbol.

Bitcoin

€76,946

+3.03% over 24h

Ethereum

€2,435

+1.27% over 24h

EUR/USD rate

1.126

In this edition · 6

Editorial

As of 2 October 2026, the crypto-asset market is sending mixed signals. Large caps like bitcoin and ether remain at high levels after a marked rebound from summer lows, but have not regained their 2025 records. At the same time, a wave of scheduled unlocks across several altcoins serves as a reminder that market liquidity remains highly dependent on technical timetables that are often hard to read for the general public. On the regulatory front, the U.S. SEC’s proposal to open a framework for direct custody of crypto-assets by funds and managers illustrates authorities’ dilemma: to regulate more without stifling innovation. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ecosystem continues to advance on its technological agenda, with new privacy tools and an upcoming protocol upgrade that already requires infrastructure adaptations. For investors as well as builders, the period demands a nuanced reading of risks: market risks linked to new supply flows, operational risks during upgrades, regulatory risks in a still-shifting environment. today’s edition focuses on these friction points to provide factual reference points, without promises or dramatization.

Markets

Bitcoin and ether remain close to their highs despite monetary tightening

On October 2, 2026, bitcoin and ether remain at high levels, around 76 946 € and 2 435 €, even as the US Federal Reserve adopts a more restrictive tone. This resilience supports risk appetite, without eliminating volatility risks.

On October 2, 2026, BusinessToday reports that bitcoin once again traded above a threshold equivalent to about 74 600 € (84 000 $) during the session, while staying below its October 2025 records. The market reference points used for this edition place bitcoin around 76 946 € (86 641 $), a level still close to recent highs but marked by rapid movements. This configuration illustrates a market that remains dynamic, in which intraday variations can remain significant for exposed investors.

According to BusinessToday, the current ascent of bitcoin follows a clear rebound from the mid‑2026 lows, without erasing the correction that occurred after the 2025 highs. At the same time, the Economic Times highlights that the recovery of large crypto caps continues. Ether thus regained the equivalent of about 2 397 € (2 700 $) according to BusinessToday, while the price reference used in this edition reports ether around 2 435 € (2 742 $), confirming a recovery but still in mixed territory.

The crypto page of the Economic Times, consulted on October 2, 2026, describes a market lifted by the rebound of large caps despite a message deemed “hawkish” from the US Federal Reserve in its latest communications. This firmer tone on rates should weigh on risk assets in principle, but bitcoin and ether are holding up for now. This resilience can be interpreted as an indicator of overall positive market sentiment, even if it does not presage the future price trajectory or a potential return of volatility.

For investors, the coexistence of high price levels and a stricter monetary environment underlines a fragile balance. Bitcoin’s holding around 76 946 € and ether’s proximity to 2 435 € reflect sustained demand, but dependence on central bank announcements remains strong. In this context, price sensitivity to macroeconomic data and monetary policy signals remains elevated, leaving open the possibility of rapid corrections in the event of a change in perception about rates or overall risk.

On a broader level, the ability of the two main crypto assets to absorb, at least temporarily, a firmer monetary discourse can fuel debate about their place in diversified portfolios. However, past episodes, recalled by BusinessToday with the post‑record correction of 2025, show that reversals can be abrupt. The situation on October 2, 2026 therefore confirms both the growing anchoring of bitcoin and ether in financial markets and the persistence of significant volatility risks, which market participants must continue to incorporate into their analyses.

Regulation

The U.S. SEC Outlines a Framework for Custody of Crypto-Assets by Funds

On October 1, 2026, the SEC presented a proposed regulatory framework for the custody of crypto-assets by investment advisers and funds, paving the way for a supervised direct exposure while strengthening compliance requirements. This initiative comes amid legislative gridlock in Washington and could reshape institutional investors’ access to digital assets.

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Technology

Ethereum: zkAPI and Glamsterdam Redraw the Landscape of Privacy and Infrastructure

The Ethereum Foundation launches zkAPI on mainnet and prepares the Glamsterdam upgrade on Sepolia, with direct impacts on user privacy and infrastructure operator configuration. Technical teams are urged to adapt their parameters before the next steps on the main network.

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Markets

Early October Under Pressure: A Coordinated Wave of Unlocks Upsets Altcoins

Between October 1 and October 4, 2026, a series of massive token unlocks hit several altcoins, with amounts exceeding several hundred million euros. These rapid changes in supply risk amplifying volatility in markets already strained in liquidity.

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Markets

Swarm Network and Sui highlight the impact of scheduled emission calendars on the token market

Between the 10 billion TRUTH to be released by 2030 and more than 2,66 billion € (over 3 billion $) of unlocks scheduled in October, Swarm Network and Sui illustrate the need to closely monitor emission schedules. Transparency on vestings becomes a central tool to assess potential dilution and selling pressure.

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Macro

Lessons from stress episodes: how the ESMA reads crypto systemic risk

In its report “Trends, Risks and Vulnerabilities” No. 1/2026, the ESMA reviews a rapid crypto market downturn that triggered nearly 16,9 Md€ (19 Md$) of derivatives liquidations, pointing to structural vulnerabilities. This reading now serves as an implicit analytical framework in European debates on market corrections and waves of massive unlocks.

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Coming up

  • 2 October 2026, 09:00 UTC: major unlock of Bitway (BTW) tokens for an amount of about 93,8 M€ (105,67 M$), or nearly 3,62% of its market capitalization, according to a schedule published by Cryptonewsnet.
  • 2 October 2026, 11:00 UTC: unlock of about 22,5 M€ (25,33 M$) of ENA tokens, representing roughly 0,93% of its capitalization, according to the same weekly unlock schedule.
  • 3 October 2026, 03:00 UTC: scheduled unlock for Impossible Cloud Network (ICNT) of about 1,36 M€ (1,53 M$), or 6,03% of its market capitalization.
  • 4 October 2026, 03:00 UTC: unlock of Lagrange (LA) tokens estimated at 1,90 M€ (2,14 M$), representing 15,04% of its capitalization, according to Cryptonewsnet.
  • 6 October 2026, 13:53:36 UTC: planned activation of the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Ethereum Sepolia testnet, with Chainlink recommendations to adapt workflows using gas limits.